Conor McGregor was out of the octagon for five full years, yet he still headlined UFC 329 at the T-Mobile Arena on July 11, 2026. Max Holloway took the win after McGregor suffered a knee injury just 1:09 into the opening round, dropping the Irishman’s record to 22-7. FightMatrix currently puts McGregor all the way down at No. 172 in the welterweight division. And yet, the UFC made his comeback the main attraction of International Fight Week. That massive gap speaks for itself.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan (10-31-2026)
Lightweight (155)
[#12][#11UFC] Renato Carneiro (21-7-1, +106) vs. [#39][#25UFC] Tom Nolan (11-1-0, -127)
Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (1-2-0)
2026-04-04: W vs. [#46LW] Chris Duncan (15-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:14 of round 2
2025-06-28: L vs. [#17LW] Beneil Dariush (23-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#1P4P][#3DD][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (29-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:05 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Tom Nolan (3-0-0)
2026-06-06: W vs. [#66LW] Fares Ziam (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-09-27: W vs. [#391LW] Charlie Campbell (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:08 of round 1
2025-02-08: W vs. [#327WW] Viacheslav Borshchev (9-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Tom Nolan | -127 | 53.54% | |
| Elo K170 | Renato Carneiro | 2042.59 | +174.18 | 73.16% |
| Elo Modified | Renato Carneiro | 2021.05 | +178.57 | 73.65% |
| Glicko-1 | Renato Carneiro | 2088.40 | +201.70 | 76.16% |
| WHR | Renato Carneiro | 1942.47 | +265.41 | 82.17% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Renato Carneiro 37.4, Tom Nolan 26.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 210, Tom Nolan 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#35][#27UFC] Randy Brown (20-8-0, +222) vs. [#52][#36UFC] Jacobe Smith (13-0-0, -343)
Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (1-2-0)
2026-04-11: L vs. [#19WW] Kevin Holland (29-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-11-08: L vs. [#8WW] Gabriel Bonfim (20-1-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2025-04-26: W vs. [#45WW] Nicolas Dalby (24-7-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:39 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Jacobe Smith (3-0-0)
2026-10-03: W vs. [#447WW] Bruce Whitehead (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
2026-02-21: W vs. [#389LW] Josiah Harrell (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1
2025-06-28: W vs. [#142WW] Niko Price (17-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:03 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jacobe Smith | -343 | 71.37% | |
| Elo K170 | Randy Brown | 1765.16 | +4.71 | 50.68% |
| Elo Modified | Jacobe Smith | 1784.74 | +10.27 | 51.48% |
| Glicko-1 | Randy Brown | 1853.08 | +15.06 | 52.16% |
| WHR | Jacobe Smith | 1731.99 | +19.11 | 52.75% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Randy Brown 36.3, Jacobe Smith 30.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 203, Jacobe Smith 28
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jacobe Smith leads 1-0
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#4][#4UFC] Yana Santos (17-8-0, +205) vs. [#5][#5UFC] Luana Santos (11-2-0, -253)
Last 3 Fights: Yana Santos (3-0-0)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#13BW] Macy Chiasson (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-05-03: W vs. [*] Miesha Tate (20-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-10: W vs. [#14BW] Chelsea Chandler (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Luana Santos (3-0-0)
2026-06-20: W vs. [#10BW] Karol Rosa (19-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#26BW] Melissa Croden (8-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-05-17: W vs. [#76BW] Tainara Lisboa (7-4-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 4:59 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Luana Santos | -253 | 68.60% | |
| Elo K170 | Yana Santos | 1662.54 | +39.60 | 55.67% |
| Elo Modified | Yana Santos | 1703.64 | +56.36 | 58.04% |
| Glicko-1 | Yana Santos | 1674.28 | +28.27 | 54.06% |
| WHR | Luana Santos | 1580.22 | +13.83 | 51.99% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Yana Santos 36.9, Luana Santos 26.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yana Santos 392, Luana Santos 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Luana Santos leads 1-0
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I opened the Fight Matrix Program for the Moicano and Nolan card on 31 October with a coffee and no real plan, and ended up staring at one row for twenty minutes. The lightweight main event, Renato Moicano (listed under his family name, Carneiro) against Tom Nolan. Four rating systems, all four picking Moicano, and no two of them agreeing on by how much.
Elo K170 had him at 73.16%, the modified Elo a hair higher at 73.65%, Glicko-1 at 76.16%, and WHR way out ahead at 82.17%. Same two men, same records, and a nine point spread between the most careful number and the boldest.
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