Since this is such a large event, we figured we would air our predictions out there for all to see. As a statistical based site, we’re going to analyze this based more on statistics and trends versus style analysis. So, enjoy!
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Light Heavyweight
[#7] Sokoudjou vs. [#17] Kazuhiro Nakamura
FightMatrix Comments: Kind of disappointed this didn’t make the main card (per Wikipedia). Statistically, these two are hard to get a read on. Nakamura tends to lose decisively against top-notch competition, but win decisively versus the rest. Sokoudjou on the other hand, took the scene by storm with two dominant wins over two Top 10 Light Heavyweights, before putting on an embarrassing performance against Machida. Some would like to say those wins against Nogueira and Arona are flukes, but we’re not foolish enough to dismiss two back-to-back quality wins. Sokoudjou regroups and batters Nakamura for the stoppage. Sokoudjou wins by (T)KO
Main Card
Light Heavyweight
[#18] Wilson Gouveia vs. [#200] Goran Reljic
FightMatrix Comments: Despite the ranking difference, we think this one is a bit closer than it appears. The main reason? Even though Reljic’s opposition has been poor, he has not shown a weakness in his results. This can be dangerous, as a “ceiling” for him has never been approached yet. However, we think his opposition quality has been TOO poor to give that quality much merit and we expect Gouveia to put up a dominant result. Gouveia wins by (T)KO
Light Heavyweight
[#13] Thiago Silva vs. [#40] Antonio Mendes
FightMatrix Comments: Silva is on a similar path to that of Reljic above, except his opposition has been much, much better. Mendes, although no slouch, has not shown us anything incredible with his recent performances. We expect Silva to continue his blaze of glory into a fringe-Top 10 position. Silva wins by (T)KO
Light Heavyweight
[#4] Keith Jardine vs. [#12] Wanderlei Silva
FightMatrix Comments: Every dog has his day and every aging great fighter has one more win in him. This seems to be the thought amongst betters when analyzing this fight, w/ Jardine fitting the first phrase, and Silva fitting the latter. Obviously the latter is carrying more steam behind it as Jardine is pegged as the underdog. Result-wise, Silva has not shown us anything incredibly impressive since 2005. Although Jardine’s career ledger pales in comparison, we feel his length and power will be too much for “The Axe Murderer”. This may be Wanderlei’s curtain call as a top-notch competitor. Jardine wins by (T)KO
Light Heavyweight
[#2] Lyoto Machida vs. [#9] Tito Ortiz
FightMatrix Comments: Machida is a wrecking ball. Outside of a split decision win back in 2004, his performances have been outstanding. You can argue his actual Light Heavyweight ranking, but at a minimum, he should be #4. Tito Ortiz, contrary to common belief, is still a legitimate fringe Top 10 fighter in the division. Machida may have fought a higher-ranked fighter in Sokoudjou, but has never faced a fighter as thoroughly proven as Ortiz, who only seems to lose against the best of the best. Ortiz is a strong, capable, and experienced fighter, who we feel can at least stymie Machida’s attempts at dominating the fight, and even win portions of it. In fact, we believe this is a fight Ortiz can, and may actually win, but it is a toss-up. Though, due to the bad blood between Ortiz and the UFC, we feel that any close decision will go to Machida. Machida by SD
UFC Lightweight Championship
[#3] BJ Penn vs. [#4] Sean Sherk
FightMatrix Comments: Another tough call. Penn is the more skilled fighter and Sherk is renowned for his incredible fitness levels, which are of great importance in a 25 minute fight. Both have a great ledger and both are near the very top of the Lightweight division. If you want to grasp at statistical straws, Penn’s result against St. Pierre beats that of Sherk’s, but those bouts took place approximately 2.5 years ago. When a fight seems roughly even in terms of ranking, you start to look at fighter attributes. Penn is taller, and likely rangier than Sherk, but most importantly, he is younger. Sherk is nearly 35 years old, while Penn, 29, is in his physical prime. Also, you’ve got to wonder if the Sherk steroid accusations were more serious than he himself made them out to be. After looking at a few pictures (which I believe show a leaner Sherk), you’ve got to wonder if the accusations were true and he put the substances aside, which may put his fitness and strength in doubt. These factors, combined with Penn’s (apparent) recent increase in determination, leads us to believe Penn will pull out the win. Penn by SUB