Since my last gambling article went so well, I bring you the next edition of said article and this time we’re going to focus on GSP/Shields at UFC 129.
BetUS, the online sportsbook offers GSP as a -450 favorite, which means that to win $100, you would actually have to bet $450. Now, comparing the odds to the perceived chance of winning is not like comparing oranges to oranges (more like pears to asian pears), but doing so reveals that GSP would be a good bet if you think he has greater than a 81.8% chance of winning.
How can you not like GSP in this match-up? He’s already cemented himself as one of the very best fighters ever, and according to my recent “Age: Part V” article, he’s right in the zone of age/career age combination that sees some of the best winning percentages. The only problem is, Shields is also in that same area. Neither fighter has a significant age or size advantage; Shields is taller, but GSP has a larger reach — an old boxing study I performed showed that a reach advantage is markedly more important than height. Needless to say though, there will probably be a lot of grappling here.
To make a long story short, I think this one goes the distance with GSP taking a 49-46 type of decision.
So, what do you do here? I have to be very sure to recommend putting money on a -450 favorite and quite honestly, I’m not THAT sure. Then again, Shields at +325 seems like a waste of coin. I would go very small on GSP to win.
On the undercard, I’d say go big on Machida at -350. Couture hasn’t fought a live opponent in nearly two years and is two months away from 48.