Here it is.. Part 3 in the “Gambling Analysis” series. With the first two parts going so well, I may never stop. However, when I actually take my own advice and bet… that’s when my predictions will falter.
In the first two series, I focused on the main event, with the second providing an additional pick – the surefire win for Machida. This time, I don’t see much value in UFC 130‘s main event of Rampage/Hamill, so my pick for the bet of the night is to take Frank Mir over Roy Nelson.
BetUS, the online sportsbook offers Mir as a -125 favorite, which essentially equates to a “pick’em” type of fight. To me, Mir is a great value.
Yes, everyone loves Nelson and a lot of people love to hate Mir. Nelson also holds two recent wins over Struve, and Schaub, young guys who many rate very highly. But I sit and wonder, how much did that thrashing that dos Santos delivered take out of Nelson?
Mir on the other hand, did look piss poor against CroCop, and as I type this, am having “better’s remorse”. I just don’t see Nelson being explosive enough to catch Mir with a big shot, or being able to submit him. Nelson has never been submitted either, which seems to suggest that Mir will win a decision. However, in Mir’s entire career, he has only finished a three round fight once.
It would seem the planets are aligning against me in picking Mir, but I am still going to go with him. Mir by a split decision, that is perhaps a bit more controversial than your average split decision.