Less than five years ago, UFC president Dana White stated that “women will never fight in the UFC“. What a difference a few years makes. Today, the UFC has two (somewhat) thriving women’s divisions, and Ronda Rousey is arguably the biggest star of the promotion. And now we have our first Pay-Per-View card with two headlining matchups featuring the two women champions defending their titles. And despite both of these fights being major mismatches, and the fact that I’m still somewhat lukewarm on WMMA as a whole, I am very much looking forward to this card.
A couple of other oddities about UFC 193. First, I happened to give every fight on the main card the same valuation of $10. This was not intentional – I truly am more or less equally interested in all five PPV bouts. Second, this is the only card of the year where the cable-broadcast prelims received a negative net valuation. The fights slated to be of Fox Sports 1 are mostly stinkers, and the only interesting preliminary fight on the card is buried as the opening bout on the Fight Pass portion of the event.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Main Event: (C) [#1 W135] Ronda Rousey vs [#8 W135] Holly Holm for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship
Worth: $10
Why: This fight is a huge mismatch, at least judging from what I’ve seen so far in Holly Holm’s two UFC fights. Despite Holm’s boxing credentials, she lacks knockout power in her punches, and failed to score a knockdown or even do any significant visible damage to her opponents. Most of the knockouts in her pre-UFC MMA career came from kicks, but she is unlikely to be throwing much of those given the threat of the takedown. And once Rousey gets this fight to the ground, it will be as good as over. Nonetheless, I am looking forward to another episode of the Ronda Rousey show. Rousey does something crazy in every fight, whether it’s submitting Cat Zingano with her signature armbar in 14 seconds, or knocking out Bethe Correia (who was supposed to have a striking advantage over Rousey) in 34. The likelihood of Holm winning this fight, or even lasting a round, is slim to none. The only real question is ‘how will Rousey dispatch of her opponent this time, and how quickly will she do it?’ The answer, in my opinion, is worth $10 to find out.
Co-Main Event: (C) [#1 W115] Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs [#7 W115] Valerie Letourneau for the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship
Worth: $10
Why: In only four UFC fights, Joanna Jedrzejczyk – or ‘Joanna Champion’ as she likes to refer to herself – went from a complete unknown to the most interesting female athlete in the sport. Unlike Ronda Rousey, Joanna doesn’t have an Olympic judo background or a go-to submission that befalls almost every opponent. What she does have is an ultra-aggressive, relentless striking that turns her opponents’ faces into minced meat after a round or two. Joanna’s first two bouts in the Octagon went the distance, and her win over Claudia Gadelha was a controversial split decision that could have really gone either way. But her destruction of newly crowned champion Carla Esparza, followed up by a successful title defense over Jessica Penne, were fights you would not want to miss. And not because they were particularly competitive – in fact a complete opposite; they were brutal, one-sided affairs. Whereas Rousey’s trademark is stopping her opponents in under a minute, Joanna delivers extended beat-downs that leave her prey wishing they never signed the bout agreement. Here’s one way to put it: Matt Brown is one of my favorite fighters on the UFC roster, and Joanna is kind of like a girl version of Matt Brown.
A rematch with Gadelha would have been the most fitting fight for Joanna Champion at the moment, considering the controversial nature of their first bout and the fact that Gadelha is coming off a win over Jessica Aguilar, who was for a long time the #1 ranked strawweight in the world. However Gadelha suffered some injuries in the Aguilar fight that forced her out of action for the time being, so to stay busy Joanna is defending her title against Valerie Letourneau. Which is almost as big of a mismatch as our main event, or maybe an even bigger one, depending on which sport book’s odds you look at. And while I am generally not in favor of mismatches, I can’t wait to see what kind of violence will be unleashed on poor Valerie.
Fight: [#9 HW] Mark Hunt vs [#11 HW] Antonio Silva
Worth: $10
Why: The first meeting between Mark Hunt and Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva took place almost two years ago, and was an all-time classic that saw the two huge men trade blows for five rounds, both refusing to go down or even take a step backwards. The fight went to a draw, later overturned to a no-contest due to Silva failing a post-fight drug test.
Both fighters competed three times since their first meeting, and both have gone 1-2 in those fights. The post-TRT and free of any banned substances (and looking like a shadow of his former self) Silva suffered two brutal first-round knockouts at the hands of Andrei Arlovski and Frank Mir, but then rebounded with a second-round TKO of Soa Palelei, despite finding himself in some trouble once again in the first round. The ‘Super Samoan’ Hunt, in the meanwhile, became the first person to finish Roy Nelson since Arlovski back in 2008. This earned him a shot at the interim title against Fabricio Werdum, and while Hunt gave Werdum some trouble early in the fight he was ultimately knocked out by a huge flying knee from the current champ. He didn’t give much trouble to Stipe Miocic, who mercilessly ground-and-pounded Hunt for 20-some minutes before a fifth round TKO.
They now meet again in a fairly meaningless matchup, as both guys have one win in their last five fights and are clearly on the down slope of their respective careers. I don’t imagine this fight will live up to the expectations of their first battle, but when we’re talking about heavyweights in 2015, the only thing I’ve come to expect is the unexpected.
Fight: [#7 MW] Uriah Hall vs [#18 MW] Robert Whittaker
Worth: $10
Why: During his stint on ‘The Ultimate Fighter – Season 17’, Uriah Hall has shown to be a very scary fighter, and was lauded by Dana White as ‘the next Anderson Silva’ (hey, there’s gotta be one of them on every TUF season, right?). However the expectations were seriously dampened in his post-TUF career, after he lost a decision to Kelvin Gastelum in the finale, and since then struggled to win fights against mid-level opponents. This all changed in a flash when Hall stepped up to fight Gegard Mousasi as a short-notice replacement, and scored a most unlikely upset, stopping Mousasi in the second round with a crazy combination of a spinning back kick followed up by a flying knee for a good measure. The flukey win launched Hall into the middleweight Top 10, where I’m still not convinced he really belongs. The UFC matchmaker must agree, as for his next bout they pitted him against a rising prospect rather than another elite middleweight.
Robert Whittaker is a TUF alum like Hall, though he has not received the same accolades for his performance on ‘The Smashes’. Whittaker went 3-2 in the UFC as a welterweight, before moving up to the middleweight division. The move has done wonders for his career: Robert is 2-0 as a middleweight, with knockout wins over Clint Hester and Brad Tavares. His striking and overall game seems to be evolving at a rapid pace, and in a couple of years, the 24-year-old may prove to be a legitimate contender. For now, we are in for what should be an exciting battle of two strikers, one with a lot of power and flashy moves and the other relying on more basic techniques and pressure. This bout should be a good indicator of where do these guys really belong in the divisional picture.
Fight: [#27 HW] Jared Rosholt vs [#29 HW] Stefan Struve
Worth: $10
Why: I might be overvaluing this fight a bit, but a heavyweight bout with both opponents under 30 years of age is a very rare sight in the UFC, and I find the stylistic matchup between these very different fighters to be intriguing. Jared Rosholt is 5-1 in the UFC, with one TKO win, one loss by knockout, and four ugly and boring decisions. His grinding wrestling-based style is anything but fan friendly or fun to watch. However, here he is facing a 7′ tall Dutchman who is very comfortable off his back. While Rosholt should be able to take Struve down at will, Stefan is as much a threat on the ground as he is on his feet, constantly going for sweeps and submissions, so it’s not likely that Rosholt will be able to hold Struve down for three rounds and grind out another decision. On the feet, both guys have some major flaws. Rosholt’s striking is rudimentary at best; Struve has decent technique and power but is not very good at utilizing the height and reach advantage that he has over most opponents. Really, I have no idea how this fight will go, and won’t even attempt to make a prediction. Instead I will just repeat what I said about the Hunt-Silva fight: when we’re talking about heavyweights in 2015, the only thing to expect is the unexpected. And unpredictability is one of the reasons I love this sport.
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Fight: [#42 LHW] Gian Villante vs [#52 LHW] Anthony Perosh
Worth: $1
Why: This is the only fight on the FS1 prelims worth mentioning, and the most interesting thing about it is the fact that 43 year old Anthony ‘The Hippo’ Perosh – a journeyman far past his prime – is still fighting in the UFC, and even has a winning record in his latest stint with the promotion going back to 2010. He has been alternating wins and loses in his last six fights, and is due for a win if the pattern holds. And Gian Villante is certainly a beatable opponent. Then again, when Perosh loses it’s usually in a brutal KO fashion, and Villante has fair power (which is about the only thing he has going for him). Another fight where anything can happen, and the only outcome that I’d be surprised by would be for Villante submitting Perosh. That, or a simultaneous double knock out.
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Fight: [#26 FLW] Ryan Benoit vs [#31 FLW] Ben Nguyen
Worth: $5
Why: The youngest and lightest of all the UFC men’s divisions has been struggling mightily with Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson at the helm. While Johnson is a truly remarkable fighter and athlete, he has been forced to face for the most part unremarkable competition, and failed to attract the attention of many fans. It doesn’t help matters that he’s already twice beaten two of the top contenders, Joe Benavidez and John Dodson, leaving Dodson to consider a move back up to bantamweight and Benavidez in the unenviable position of a gatekeeper to the title. Further down the ranks, John Lineker has been banished to bantamweight due to consistently failing to make weight at 125 lbs, and Ian McCall has been plagued with injuries and contemplating retirement. The upcoming matchup between Jussier da Silva and Henry Cejudo will provide a viable contender for Johnson, but there is little to look forward to beyond that.
A part of the reason that flyweights have failed to find traction with the fans is the high rate of decisions: 57.6% of the flyweight fights in the UFC to date have gone the distance – the highest of any weight class – and correspondingly, the lowest T/KO and submission rates. Most MMA fans like to see fights finished. Enter Ryan Benoit, 26, with a perfect finish rate in eight wins, and Ben Nguyen, 27, with 11 finishes in 13 wins. Both are coming off a win in the UFC, and the winner is going to take a big step up the rankings. The loser most likely is going to sleep.
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Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $50
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $-9.99
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $1
Fox Sports 1 Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $-1
Event Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $-10.99
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Fight Pass Event Worth: $5
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $109.89
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-13.89
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PPV YTD Worth: $595.50
PPV YTD Cost: $719.88
PPV YTD Net Value: $-124.38
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $576.50
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $104
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $472.50
Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $165.00
Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $513.12