A brief preface: I wrote this blog last night, and before I could publish it this morning, UFC announced that Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier light-heavyweight title unification bout will be the new main event for UFC 200, which really makes this a moot post. Apparently Jones did not suffer any severe injuries in his fight against Ovince St. Preux, and Cormier feels that he will also be fully recovered in time to train and fight Jones at 200. So the question has been answered before I had the chance to ask.
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Back in 2009, the Ultimate Fighting Championship hyped UFC 100 as a landmark event, putting on two championship bouts featuring the promotion’s two of the most popular fighters at the time: Brock Lesnar and Georges St-Pierre. Headlined by the big names and backed up by a solid undercard, UFC 100 brought in a whopping 1.6 million Pay-Per-View (PPV) buys, a record that remains unbroken to this day. Needless to say, the fans as well as the UFC staff both have high expectations for another big-number event in UFC 200. Everyone was curious to find out who will be performing on the ‘big show’, and eventually a nice fight card came together on paper. Headlined by a rematch between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz, there were also two title fights scheduled for the event: Frankie Edgar taking on Jose Aldo for the interim featherweight title (the real title still technically held by McGregor), and Miesha Tate defending her new bantamweight crown against Amanda Nunes. The remainder of the card also seemed very promising, all the way down to the Fight Pass prelims, and there are plenty of opportunities to place a bet on UFC 200 if you’re a gambling type. Unfortunately, last week shenanigans began as the scheduled main event fell apart – seemingly for no apparent reason. I wonder if any sports books are taking bets on what will ultimately end up as the headlining bout of this event. Here are our most likely options:
[#2 FW] Conor McGregor vs [#2 LW] Nate Diaz
It all started with a cryptic tweet from Conor McGregor claiming that he is retiring from the sport. Speculation has run wild on the reasons behind this statement. Was it a negotiating ploy to get more money for the fight? Was McGregor shook up by a recent death of a fighter following an MMA bout in Ireland, which Conor witnessed from the ringside? Did he already make enough money in his short career to live out the rest of his life comfortably and not have to worry about potential broken limbs, brain damage, or worse? As it turns out, none of the above. The point of contention between McGregor and Zuffa was a pre-fight press conference in Las Vegas, which McGregor refused to attend, as he feels it would disrupt his training camp in Iceland. With neither side willing to budge, UFC has pulled McGregor off the card, and started looking for a replacement opponent for Diaz. Few days later, McGregor tweeted that the fight is back on, but this was disputed by Dana. Nick Diaz also has not remained silent: first he claimed that he will retire along with McGregor, then it was something along the lines of “I don’t want to fight anyone but McGregor, in fact I really don’t want to fight at all, but I will fight whomever UFC puts in front of me”. Most recently, Diaz announced that the fight is off and he is going on vacation. I don’t know who to believe here, but can’t shake the feeling that this is all just a strange manner to generate more hype for the fight- let a few weeks pass, and perhaps all parties will come to an agreement and the fight will be back on. Should the fight go ahead, the betting odds for UFC 200 cannot predict a winner from McGregor and Diaz.
[#2 LW] Nate Diaz vs TBA
Assuming that McGregor is off the card for good, could Nate Diaz remain in the headlining slot with a different opponent? Highly unlikely, unless it’s a title fight. Anything less would move Diaz down the card, and it seems like a case of main event or nothing for Nate. So who could he face that is main event worthy? Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos is slated to defend his title against Eddie Alvarez on an upcoming Fight Pass card, and RDA vs Diaz would be a tough rematch to sell considering the thorough drubbing that Diaz received in their first encounter. Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler would be a more interesting possibility: stylistically a more winnable fight for Nate, not a rematch, and then there is the fact that Lawler was knocked out by Nate’s brother Nick early in his MMA career – something that could be used to hype the fight more. Lawler does not currently have a fight lined up, but his name has not come up in the UFC 200 speculation; furthermore there is no way Nate deserves to jump the line of contenders in the crowded welterweight division – not that this has ever stopped UFC before. Of course there remains one possible opponent for Nate who does not hold a title but is nonetheless main-event-worthy:
[NR] Georges St-Pierre vs TBA
Rumors have been swirling that GSP is ready to end his self imposed hiatus from the Octagon, and is in negotiations with UFC to make his return. Whether he faces Nate Diaz, challenges Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title that St-Pierre never lost, has the long awaited super fight with Anderson Silva, or fights some other opponent, the return of GSP would most certainly be worthy of UFC 200 main event. It seems that the exclusive Reebok sponsorship is the main hurdle in the way of Georges’ return, but this could certainly be worked out between UFC, Reebok, and GSP’s current sponsors. However I am not holding my breath for this to happen, let’s face it – this is a rather long shot.
[#1 LHW] (IC) Jon Jones vs [#2 LHW] (C) Daniel Cormier for the undisputed Light Heavyweight Championship
This is probably the most likely bet for the UFC 200 main even, if both fighters are healthy. Of course this is a big if. Jon Jones fought Ovince St. Preux for the interim title at UFC 197 last weekend, and rolled through OSP as if he were a red light on an Albuquerque intersection. He seemed to walk away from the fight unscathed, but there were rumors of Jones having to use a wheelchair backstage. The official injury reports/mandatory suspensions for UFC 197 have not been released yet, so we will have to wait and see. As for Cormier, he stated that he absolutely wants to face Jones in a title unification bout at 200 – if he has recovered from the injury which forced him to pull out of his originally scheduled fight vs Jones at UFC 197. Cormier has not given a definitive timetable for his recovery, but assuming that he is ready and that Jones did not suffer any serious injuries at 197, this will add an unprecedented third title bout to UFC 200, and will be a serviceable main event.
[#1 LW] (C) Rafael dos Anjos vs [#3 LW] Eddie Alvarez
Lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos is currently scheduled to defend his belt against Eddie Alvarez at UFC Fight Night 90: a Fight Pass-exclusive event which conveniently takes place only two days before UFC 200. Logistically, it won’t take much to move this fight into the UFC 200 headliner slot, and make a new main event for the Fight Pass card. This fight was announced after the McGregor shenanigans began, and I have a feeling that the UFC is keeping it on the back-burner as the potential replacement for McGregor vs Diaz, but would prefer a different headliner. Neither RDA nor Alvarez are superstars despite being elite lightweights, and Alvarez fully embraced the grind after losing his UFC debut to Donald Cerrone, bringing a clinch and wrestling-heavy game to his fights with Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis. Alvarez walked away with split decision wins in both fights, which earned him a title shot, but the fights were not the most exciting affairs. I also have a feeling that UFC brass is still mad at Dos Anjos for pulling out of his originally scheduled fight with McGregor, which led to Nate Diaz crippling their golden goose – hence the Fight Pass placement for a fight that’s certainly worthy of a PPV headliner. Still, here we have two guys who will be ready to go the weekend of UFC 200, so there is a fair possibility of this fight being shifted to 200 if nothing better comes along.
[#1 WW] (C) Robbie Lawler vs TBA
As mentioned earlier, Lawler’s name has not come up much in the UFC 200 rumors. But as far as we know he is healthy, does not have a fight currently scheduled, and there are a few opponents against whom he could potentially defend his title: Tyrone Woodley, a rematch with Carlos Condit, or even going back to Nate Diaz – or GSP! This is not out of the realm of possibility, but it is rather a long shot. Seems like UFC is saving Lawler to headline one of the post-UFC 200 events, most likely against Woodley.
[#11] Khabib Nurmagomedov vs TBA
We already know this is not happening but I wanted to mention it anyway, as Khabib claimed that he has been offered fights with GSP or Nick Diaz for UFC 200, but had to decline as the event takes place only a few days after the month of Ramadan. As a devout Muslim, Nurmagomedov would be fasting during the daytime for an entire month, and so won’t be able to have a training camp during or a fight four days later. Dana White also flatly disputed Khabib’s claims of being offered the headliner slot for 200, saying “I was not in that meeting”. At least we have everyone in agreement here – Khabib is not fighting at UFC 200, one way or another.
[#1 FW] Frankie Edgar vs [#3 FW] Jose Aldo for the Interim(?) Featherweight Championship
If all else fails and UFC are not able to put together a suitable main event, they will have no choice but to promote the current co-main to be the headlining fight. This is not the optimal option, but what can you do? It’s still not clear whether this fight will be for the interim title (assuming McGregor is still planning to return to the UFC and the featherweight division specifically) or the real belt (assuming Conor is done with the UFC or the cut to 145 lbs for good). The second option would add a bit more gravitas to the fight.
Who do you think should headline UFC 200, readers? Would you prefer one of the fights mentioned here, or are there other possibilities I didn’t think about?