Been on a bad streak… but have to (pretend) gamble our way out of it!
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Now for the options…
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fighter amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
[No qualifying picks!]
Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 10 (10.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 14.7%, WHR: 35.4% – Bankroll: -$735.00
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed all have negative odds (almost always betting favorites).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one fighter, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
Historical Hit Rate: 6 of 10 (60.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 46.0%, WHR: 63.0% – Bankroll: $320.36
Other things to consider….
- “WHR Win %” is age-adjusted as of June 2024 (when ages are available), using a formula driven by previous results.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
- Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default). Read the FAQ for more info.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.