UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Predictions: Best Bets for Moicano vs. BSD

Paris, the UFC, and September go together like butter on baguettes as the world’s No.1 mixed martial arts promotion makes its third straight appearance in the City of Light during the ninth month of the year.

This weekend, the Accor Arena will host another fun-filled night of octagon festivities, and with it comes a slew of well-known and up-and-coming names for the hosting country.

One of France’s fasting rising stars and most promising athletes, Benoit Saint-Denis, headlines the card representing the lightweight division with an opponent in Renato Moicano, who’s guaranteed to assist him in delivering an absolute slobber knocker.

Join us today as we preview this highly anticipated UFC Paris main event between Saint-Denis and Moicano. We’ll include fighter analysis, a closer look at the MMA betting odds, and our fight predictions.

UFC Paris Event Information

• Date: Saturday, September 28th – 12:00 p.m. ET
• Where: Accor Arena, Paris, France
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
• of Fights: 14
• Main Event: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Renato Moicano
• Co-Main Event: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen

Regardless of how the rest of the evening unfolds, Accor Arena is bound to end emphatically as Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint-Denis close out a massive lightweight matchup.

Each of these men is an action-oriented combatant who perpetually strives for the finish, even if it necessitates enduring punishment and engaging in a minor altercation. Pitting them in opposition to one another appears to be a formula for a battle reminiscent of “Fight of the Night” and an electrifying conclusion to what should have been an enjoyable evening on the Seine banks.

Benoit “God of War” Saint-Denis

Benoit Saint-Denis was scheduled to face Dustin Poirier in an intriguing matchup at UFC 299 in March, and he entered 2024 on a five-fight win streak. The 28-year-old began the co-main event affair with a strong look, but he could not continue as the second round progressed, seemingly losing wind before surrendering to a blistering set of strikes and a right hook from the ‘Diamond.’

The ever-dangerous BSD is back in the octagon, attempting to avenge his first loss at 155 pounds. However, will ‘The God of War’ be able to regain his saddle?

Although it is evident that his adversary this time is not as perilous as Dustin Poirier, Renato Moicano has not provided him with an easy out.

Renato “Money” Moicano

Although the Brazilian veteran is now 35 years old and has been in the promotion for 11 years, he has still managed to secure his last three bouts connivingly, and some would argue he’s the best he’s ever been.

“Money Moicano” has been undefeated at 155 pounds since transitioning to the division after a prolonged period in the featherweight Top 15. He has won three consecutive bouts and five consecutive altogether. His resume’s only recent blemish is a catchweight loss to Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 272, a result that bares no shame.

In addition, the Brazilian star, known for his energy, slick BJJ, and aggressive nature, has secured finishes in four of his five victories, most recently dominating Jalin Turner five months ago. He, of course, will be determined to maintain momentum in pursuing a Top 10 ranking, and success in hostile territory this Saturday would be another significant boost to an already growing stock.

Tale of The Tape 

Saint-Denis vs. Moicano Betting Odds Preview

Oddsmakers at the recommended sport betting apps on the US market recognize Saint-Denis as a -275 favorite over +220 underdog Moicano, despite their recent results.

Interestingly, Saint-Denis’ lone losing bout as a betting favorite was against Poirier, as his five UFC wins to date saw him attached with favorable probabilities pre-fight. In contrast, Moicano has only won two of his 16 UFC appearances when entering the fight in an underdog position.

UF Paris Main Event Betting Trends 

• Moicano has won 5 of his previous 6 UFC bouts
• 7 of Moicano’s 11 UFC wins were by KO/TKO or submission
• All five of Saint-Denis’ UFC wins were achieved inside the distance
• Saint-Denis’ only knockout loss was against top-ranked legend Dustin Poirier
• Moicano cashed as a +220 underdog in his previous UFC bout versus Turner

UFC Paris Main Event Prediction

While this stylistic matchup isn’t as straightforward as a striker versus grappler matchup, it’s safe to say that both men will likely enter Saturday’s main event with contrasting blueprints for victory.

Denis will likely attempt to maintain a striking war and damage Moicano standing. This has been a successful game plan for 90% of Moicano’s opponents in his losses to date, including Rafael Fiziev, Chan Sung Jung, and Rafael Fiziev.

Moicano, on the other hand, is likely to attempt to engage the Frenchman in a grappling battle and work him over from the top, eventually sinking in a submission, where he’s found the majority of his success in the octagon thus far.

However, Saint-Denis appears to be the most adept at executing his strategy. Although ‘The God of War’ is recognized for his impressive striking battles versus the likes of Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, and Poirier, he’s no stranger to imposing his strength in the grappling realm, as evidenced when he submitted a formidable Brazilian all-rounder in Ismael Bonfim back in 2023.

Moicano isn’t the worst striker by any means; however, he does not possess the same skill level as Saint-Denis or the power to make his foe fearful. Additionally, Moicano has experienced a slight decline in speed as he’s aged, which is why Turner was able to intercept him so easily before he switched game plans and took his strategy to the mat.

At the end of the day, it’s difficult to ignore Saint-Denis in this spot. Given the fact that an audience is firmly behind ‘The God of War’ in Paris, anticipate that the Frenchman will send his fans home delighted. With 25 minutes to work, he’ll likely achieve this via knockout before all is said and done.

Prediction: Benoit Saint-Denis by KO/TKO