The NBA is about to start, and that means you will soon place your bets on who will win the most games and take the ring at the end of the playoffs. However, betting on sports is not as easy as it sounds.
You can’t 100% predict who will win a game, but this is not a matter of luck, either. Fans can analyze a wide array of stats and metrics that tell them who is more likely to win or lose.
Numbers never lie. Gamblers who study the game will naturally get more wins than people who just bet randomly. Here, you will learn the key metrics to watch when betting on the NBA.
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Why Should I Keep Stats in Mind When Betting on the NBA?
You should always keep stats in mind when betting on the NBA; if you want to win more than you lose, of course. Now, why are numbers that important? We have an example that shows it.
Let’s say a game between the Warriors and the Clippers is coming up. The match is in San Francisco. In this scenario, the Clippers have won their last six games while the Warriors have just taken three of them.
If you see that case briefly, you may believe that the Clippers have more chances of winning. At the end of the day, they remain undefeated and have won twice the matches the Warriors have.
Hence, you bet on the Clippers. Unfortunately, they lose with a 13-point advantage for the Warriors. You are surprised and think you are unlucky, but then, you take a look at the stats.
There, you see the Clippers have never beaten the Warriors in a regular season game. Besides that, all the games the Warriors have won have been with home-field advantage, which they had for this match since it was in San Francisco.
On top of all, three of the main players for the Clippers got injured last game. They had to use the benched ones.
With all that information, it’s more than clear that the Clippers were losing that game. Yet, you had no chance to know that because you stayed with superficial information. That’s what makes checking the stats so important.
Metrics to Watch Out for When Gambling in the NBA
Now that you understand how important it is to consider the stats before gambling, you may wonder what metrics to watch out for before betting on a team. The most important ones are:
Player Efficiency Rating
Player Efficiency Rating, or PER, measures the performance per minute each player has in the team. Even if a player is historically good, they may not perform as well in the next match if they’ve had a low PER lately.
Offensive and Defensive Rating
The offensive rating of a team shows how many points they score per 100 possessions. NBA matches are fast-paced, which means this number will not always be that high. However, try to look for a team with a decent balance.
On the other hand, a team’s defensive rating tells people how many points it concedes per 100 possessions in the match. While big teams have a decent balance between offensive and defensive numbers, some of them specialize in one of the two.
True Shooting Percentage
When someone talks about the True Shooting Percentage (TS%) of a team, they mean the free throws, field goals, and three-pointers the team gets in the match. You can study this per player if you want to.
Professional gamblers study this to understand the shooting efficiency of the team and its players.
Injuries
Injuries can directly determine the performance of a team in the whole regular season. Some franchises rely on specific players to get better results. The Lakers, for example, won’t get positive results if Lebron and AD are injured at the same time.
Even if the previous numbers of the team show another picture, everything changes when an important player stops playing.
Home Court Advantage
Although it seems like something that shouldn’t affect players, some teams have historically played better at home. On the other hand, others perform better when they have to travel to another state.
Matchups
Most NBA teams have a decent level. That means they can all compete against each other at the highest level. Nonetheless, some are naturally better than others depending on the season.
Now, even if a team has better general stats than its opponent, it’s important to understand the results it has had while playing against them. Some teams counter each other due to their strengths and weaknesses.
Defensive Metrics
Defensive metrics are a must when studying which team to bet on. First, check the team’s Defensive Rebound Percentage. That shows a player’s ability to get rebounds.
The steal percentage is also important if the other team shines for its possession. Good defensive players should have a high block percentage if they want to represent a challenge for highly offensive teams.
Shot Metrics
Similar to defensive considerations, the offensive of a team tells the chances the team has of winning. At the end of the day, everything is about who scores the most points. You can measure this with shot metrics.
The Effective Field Goal Percentage tells you the shooting efficiency of a player when making three-pointers. On the other hand, the Three-point Attempt Rate shows how often a player shoots them.
Conclusion
Basketball is a complex sport. You need to study thoroughly to truly understand which team is the best option to place a bet on. However, that makes everything much more exciting than before.
If you study this, you will have a better understanding of the game and will appreciate what players, coaches, and franchises do in a better way. It’s not that you have to analyze all the information to enjoy an NBA match, but it will increase your chances of profiting from your bets.
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