For the 13th and final Pay-Per-View event of 2015, UFC is bringing out the big guns. Headlined by the long-awaited title unification bout between the featherweight champion Jose Aldo and interim champ Conor McGregor, the card also features a middleweight title bout between champion Chris Weidman and the #2 ranked fighter in the division Luke Rockhold. In addition to the dual title fights, the three remaining fights on the main card all have significant divisional implication, with at least one of them very likely to produce a #1 contender. This will be one of the rare UFC PPV events where the main card alone meets and exceeds the purchase price.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Main Event: (C) [#1 FW] Jose Aldo vs (IC) [#3 FW] Conor McGregor for the undisputed UFC Featherweight Championship
Worth: $25
Why: This fight was originally scheduled to take place back in July at UFC 189. After Jose Aldo suffered a rib injury in training, Chad Mendes stepped up on less than two weeks notice to fight McGregor for an interim title. McGregor stopped Mendes with a second round TKO, and will now look to trade up his interim belt for the real thing. This actually makes for a more interesting bout than it would have been at 189: back then one could have made a strong argument that McGregor did not really earn his title shot, and jumped to the front of the line ahead of the higher ranked contenders Mendes and Frankie Edgar, without beating any of the top guys in the division. The win over Mendes silences that argument and lends much more credibility to Conor’s standing as a contender. The winner of this fight will be the truly undisputed UFC champion, lineal world champion, and #1 in the division. The winner also won’t be lacking challengers, with Max Holloway taking on Jeremy Stephens on the undercard and Edgar colliding with Mendes at TUF 22 finale just a day before this event. Of course, should McGregor walk away with the undisputed title, an immediate rematch with Aldo will most likely follow (this is the UFC after all, and Zuffa matchmakers sure love the rematches) – unless the talk of Jose Aldo’s impeding retirement comes true – but I would take that with a very large grain of salt.
Co-Main Event: (C) [#1 MW] Chris Weidman vs [#2 MW] Luke Rockhold for the UFC Middleweight Championship
Worth: $25
Why: For the first time this year, I am valuating two fights on the same card at my maximum single-fight value of $25. And why not? The co-main is just as good, if not better, of a matchup as the main event. Here we have an undefeated champion Chris Weidman looking to make his fourth title defense against the second best guy in the division. In his title run, Weidman stopped Anderson Silva twice (albeit both times in a controversial fashion), followed it up by a hard-fought decision win over Lyoto Machida, and capped it off with a first round TKO of Vitor Belfort. In the meanwhile Luke Rockhold, who was knocked out by Belfort in his UFC debut, rebounded with four straight wins – all opponents stopped within two rounds – and has looked more and more impressive in each successful outing. Rockhold’s destruction of Machida in his most recent fight was a thing of beauty, and proved that he is a very worthy challenger in a stacked division. This fight is as good as MMA gets.
Fight: [#4 MW] Yoel Romero vs [#5 MW] Ronaldo Souza
Worth: $22.50
Why: This is the first non-title bout in 2015 that I valuated higher than $20, as it has all makings of an awesome fight. Yoel ‘Soldier of God’ Romero and Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza have already been scheduled to meet twice, but the fight fell apart both times – once due to an injury to Romero, the other due to an illness suffered by Jacare. I guess the third time is a charm. I was very much looking forward to this fight the first and second time, and my anticipation has only grown since, as both guys continued to roll over every opponent in their path.
Is there anything not to like about this matchup? Romero is an Olympic medalist in free-style wrestling who also possesses incredible power in his hands, polished striking, lightning speed, amazing athleticism, and smooth transitions. He uses his wrestling base both defensively and offensively, but mainly to keep his opponents guessing. Romero prefers to finish fights with a storm of punches, elbows, knees, and a kitchen sink for a good measure: 9 out of his 10 wins have come by knockout or TKO. His only apparent flaw is that he is a bit of a late starter, but he also has a rock solid chin that saw him through some very tough spots in a couple of fights.
Ronaldo Souza is also an elite grappler who holds multiple world titles in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu as well as no-gi submission grappling, and unlike Romero he mainly sticks to his bread and butter in the cage, with 16 of 22 wins coming by the way of submission. However he is also no slouch in the striking department and has considerable power of his own; though he only has two TKO victories on his resume they come against very tough fighters in Yushin Okami and Derek Brunson. I really have no idea how this fight will go once the Octagon doors are shut, but I believe it will be a war and the winner should be the next challenger for the UFC middleweight title.
Fight: [#7 WW] Demian Maia vs [#19 WW] Gunnar Nelson
Worth: $10
Why: One of the most seasoned veterans in the UFC, and arguably one of the best submission grapplers in MMA (Jacare may challenge me on that claim), Demian Maia has had a successful career despite never holding a championship title. He did go the distance with both current middleweight champion Chris Weidman and the previous champ Anderson Silva, making them both look human in process. Maia is 9-4 as a UFC middleweight; he dropped down to 170 lbs after the Weidman fight and now holds a 6-2 record in his current weight class. He is getting up there in age, so this is likely his last opportunity to make a title run. But first he has to get past Gunnar Nelson: a man more than a decade younger than Maia, who holds some serious grappling credentials of his own, and was a highly touted and undefeated prospect prior to his loss to Rick Story. Nelson rebounded with a submission win over Brandon Thatch, and now meets Maia in a battle of elite submission grapplers. Alas, such fights often turn into sloppy kickboxing affairs, and Nelson looks like a more polished striker than Demian so his best strategy may be to keep the fight standing rather than testing his grappling against Maia. I am however hoping for a ground war.
Fight: [#4 FW] Max Holloway vs [#11 FW] Jeremy Stephens
Worth: $15
Why: After dropping back-to-back decisions to Dennis Bermudez and Conor McGregor in 2013, Max Holloway went on a 7-fight win streak and reached the Top 5 in the featherweight division. A win here will most likely earn him a shot at Jose Aldo or a rematch with McGregor, depending on who comes out victorious in the main event. His opponent Jeremy ‘Lil Heathen’ Stephens is not in as good of a position in the divisional picture; a veteran of the lightweight division, Stephens is 4-2 since dropping down to 145, and lost two of his last three fights. He also failed to make weight in his most recent fight against Bermudez; nonetheless a first-round knockout win showed that he is still a very dangerous fighter. Should he beat Holloway, the next title shot will most likely go to the winner of Edgar vs Mendes, but a win will establish Stephens as a legit contender. As long as he makes weight, of course.
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Fight: [#3 BW] Urijah Faber vs [#15 BW] Frankie Saenz
Worth: $5
Why: Though Urijah Faber is 36 and his best years are clearly behind him, he can still put up a fight against anyone under 155 lbs and will probably beat all but the most elite fighters. I am not sure what was the point of matching him up with Frankie Saenz, who is 3-0 in UFC with all three fights going to decision. A victory in this fight will do absolutely nothing for Faber’s career; for Saenz it will put a big name on his resume as well as give him a huge boost in rankings and notoriety. But I don’t see Saenz winning unless the wheels have completely fallen off Faber, and judging by Urijah’s previous bout with Frankie Edgar, he’s not quite there yet. And at 35 I don’t see Saenz making a huge impact in the division even if he does get by Faber. So it’s a fairly meaningless fight all in all – let’s just hope that it will at least be a fun one to watch.
Fight: [#36 WW] Colby Covington vs [#39 WW] Warlley Alves
Worth: $2.50
Why: Undefeated 27-year-old prospect Colby Covington is 3-0 in the UFC, and took a huge step up in competition when he faced the veteran Mike Pyle in his most recent fight. Covington defeated Pyle with a wrestling-heavy decision, which launched him from the outside of the Top 150 into the Top 50 of the welterweight division. Warlley Alves, 24, is also undefeated with three wins in the Octagon, and though his unanimous decision win over Alan Jouban has been questioned by many fans, he has submitted his other two UFC opponents with a guillotine choke. Both guys favor grappling over striking, so this should be an interesting stylistic matchup of wrestling vs BJJ. Or a display of really bad kickboxing, which happens sometimes when you match up two solid grapplers.
Fight: [#34 LW] Kevin Lee vs [#35 LW] Leonardo Santos
Worth: $2.50
Why: In a very closely matched bout, Detroit native Kevin Lee is taking on the Brazilian Leonardo Santos. Lee dropped a decision to Al Iaquinta in his UFC debut, but since then rattled off four straight wins culminating with a first round submission of James Moontasri. Lee has been clamoring for a matchup with Sage Northcutt – obviously looking to capitalize on his name recognition while at the same time fighting someone far less experienced than himself – but instead got an opponent without much hype, but a whole lot closer to Lee in rankings and experience than Northcutt. Santos is 3-0-1 in UFC with two submission wins, and an overall 64% submission rate. Lee also seems to favor ground game to striking. Neither fighter have any huge names on their resume, though Lee has youth on his side: 35-year-old Santos is 12 years elder, and his career has lasted nearly a decade longer than Kevin’s, though he has had a 4+ year layoff between his first and second professional bouts.
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Fight: [#52 LW] Magomed Mustafaev vs [#94 LW] Joe Proctor
Worth: $1
Why: This fight is a rare exception where I will valuate a bout with neither opponent in the Top 50, and where I don’t know a whole lot about either fighter. Joe Proctor is 4-2 in UFC but has not done much to separate himself from the crowded lightweight field. There has been an influx of Russian fighters from the Caucasus region in the UFC’s lighter weight classes in recent years, and Mustafaev may be one of the few standouts among that crowd. With a 12-1 record, 8 of his wins came by the way of T/KO (including a rare slam knockout) and 4 by submission. He has already stopped Piotr Hallman in his Octagon debut, and the 100% finish rate warrants Mustafaev as a fighter to watch, and makes this fight worth a buck.
—
Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $97.50
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $37.51
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $10
Fox Sports 1 Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $8
Event Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $45.51
—
Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $1
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $119.88
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $25.52
—
PPV YTD Worth: $693
PPV YTD Cost: $779.87
PPV YTD Net Value: $-86.87
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $662
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $116
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $546
Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $165.00
Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $624.13