They say all good things must come to an end. And so as the UFC is wrapping up a what was a very successful year for the promotion with another stacked event on Fox/Fox Sports 1, I will be wrapping up 2015 with the last installment in the ‘Bang for Your Buck’ series. It’s hard to believe that Zuffa is able to put on such a strong card just a week after a ridiculous weekend of three UFC events in three days. Besides a lightweight title fight and a long awaited matchup between two hard hitting Top 10 heavyweights, the main card on Fox also features another solid lightweight bout, while an extended 3-hour block of prelims on FS1 has five fights that I am looking forward to. There are also two women’s bouts on the card – one on Fox, one on the prelims – as well as three bouts on Fight Pass to start off the event, but none of those really pique my interest.
Main Card (Fox)
Main Event: (C) [#1 LW] Rafael dos Anjos vs [#2 LW] Donald Cerrone for the UFC Lightweight Championship
Worth: $25
Why: This is an amazing matchup between two of the worlds most elite lightweights, both at the peak of their game. After losing a decision to the Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2014, dos Anjos fought four times in the following year, and won all four: T/KO finishes of Ben Henderson and Jason High and thoroughly dominant decisions over Nate Diaz and then champion Antony Pettis. Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone in the meanwhile has won seven straight with four finishes in the course of two years. Cerrone’s last loss came via a close decision to Dos Anjos, but with the way both fighters have performed since then, a rematch is definitely warranted.
Dos Anjos and Cowboy have had a lot of common opponents, which is understandable when both had 18 fights in the UFC. What is more interesting that besides handing Cerrone his last loss, dos Anjos also beat the two men who defeated Cerrone prior: Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis. While Cerrone is not the same fighter he was in the Diaz fight – or even in the first dos Anjos fight – I still believe Rafael will take the rematch and successfully defend his title for the first time. Another interesting factoid about this fight is that Cowboy is the only lineal champion who is not also the UFC champion, so this fight will unify the last disputed lineage in all of men’s divisions, merging all lineal championships with UFC belts (with the questionable exemption of Jon Jones).
Fight: [#3 HW] Junior dos Santos vs [#9 HW] Alistair Overeem
Worth: $20
Why: Who doesn’t love a good heavyweight fight between two huge, powerful strikers? Junior dos Santos started his UFC career with a booming knockout of the current heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum, and proceeded to rack up an incredible 9-win streak against the who’s who of the division and capturing the UFC gold in process, before finally losing a decision in a rematch with Cain Velasquez. The grueling five-round fight seems to have taken a toll on Junior, who rematched Velasquez again after rebounding with a spinning kick knockout of Mark Hunt, and was finished in the fifth and final round of the rubber match. Most recently, dos Santos defeated Stype Miocic in closely contested decision, but since then has been out of action with injuries for a year.
His opponent Alistair Overeem has come a long way from a skinny light-heavyweight who got cold-cocked by Chuck Liddell in the 2003 Pride Middleweight GP. After being finished in three consecutive fights, Overeem moved up a class and soon become a hulking heavyweight, with a little help from some horse meat and other alleged substances. After winning the StrikeForce heavyweight title in 2007 as well as the 2010 K-1 World Gran Prix in kickboxing, Overeem joined the UFC, defeating the former champ Brock Lesnar in his debut. He was then knocked out in three of his next four fights, save for winning an uneventful decision against Frank Mir. He has had somewhat of a recent resurgence with wins over Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve, but Junior dos Santos is a whole different animal. Both men hit hard, but dos Santos is durable while Overeem is known to be a glass cannon. Both have questionable cardio, but Junior should be able to find Overeem’s chin withing the first two rounds.
Fight: [#9 LW] Michael Johnson vs [#21 LW] Nate Diaz
Worth: $10
Why: It’s an interesting fight between two young veterans. Michael ‘The Menace’ Johnson was edging close to a shot at a lightweight title, before his four-win streak was snapped by a questionable decision loss to Beniel Dariush. Nate Diaz, who has bounced between the lightweight and welterweight divisions, defeated Takanori Gomi, Jim Miller, and Donald Cerrone to start his most recent run at 155, but then lost 3 of his last four bouts and has not fought in over a year. Johnson is a solid favorite from both the rankings and the betting odds perspective, but in my opinion this fight has ‘controversial decision’ written all over it.
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Fight: [#14 LW] Myles Jury vs [#10 FW] Charles Oliveira
Worth: $10
Why: Miles ‘Fury’ Jury failed to make an impact on Season 15 of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’, but then won the first six fights of his official UFC career before suffering his first loss as a pro in a fairly one-sided fight with Donald Cerrone. The loss sent Jury packing to a lower weight class, and he will make his featherweight debut against a Top-10 ranked opponent, Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira. Submission wizard Oliveira also started as a lightweight in the UFC, and also dropped down to 145 after a loss to Cerrone, building up a 6-3 record in the featherweight division. Oliveira’s last outing was a unlikely injury loss to one of the divisions’ top contenders Max Holloway, and he will be looking to rebound and solidify his standing. Jury is a better rounded fighter and holds an advantage on the feet against the sometimes chinny Oliveira; ‘Do Bronx’ holds a considerable advantage if the fight goes to the ground. A fun matchup of styles that might produce another potential future contender for the newly crowned champion Conor McGregor.
Fight: [#18 MW] C.B. Dollaway vs [#35 MW] Nate Marquardt
Worth: $1
Why: At this point I should probably be giving negative valuations to any fight with the ghost of Nate Marquardt – read this for a couple of reasons why. But I guess Nate and I are both gluttons for punishment, so I will once again give an imaginary dollar to watch him almost certainly get knocked silly by CB Dollaway in a completely meaningless fight, and hope that he finally decides to hang up the gloves afterward.
Fight: [#20 MW] Josh Samman vs [#40 MW] Tamdan McCrory
Worth: $5
Why: Last time Tamdan ‘The Barn Cat’ McCrory fought in the Octagon, he was more than six years younger and 15 lbs lighter: McCrory started his UFC career as an 8-0 undefeated welterweight, before he was old enough to legally drink alcohol in most states. After going 3-3, Tamdan took a five year break from the sport to finish college. He returned five years later as a middleweight, scoring two first-round finishes in Bellator FC, before being signed back to the UFC. McCrory has always been an exciting fighter, and so is his opponent Josh Samman, who is 3-0 in the UFC with all finishes – this is definitely a fight I am looking forward to.
Fight: [#21 FW] Nik Lentz vs [#53 LW] Danny Castillo
Worth: $5
Why: Nick ‘The Carny’ Lentz is another one of several fighters on this card who have bounced between multiple weight classes. After a 4-2 run as a featherweight and a submission loss to Charles Oliveira, Lentz is making his way back up to 155, meeting a UFC and WEC veteran Danny ‘Last Call’ Castillo. Castillo is 36 years old, and though he is 7-6 overall in the UFC, he has lost three fights in a row and four of his last five. This is a must-win fight for Castillo, as a loss here will almost certainly be the ‘last call’ for his career in the major leagues of MMA.
Fight: [#60 FW] Cole Miller vs [#99 FW] Jim Alers
Worth: $2.50
Why: While it’s not a particularly significant fight from the divisional picture standpoint, Cole Miller is always enterntaining – win or lose – and I don’t expect this fight to be any different. Jim ‘The Beast’ Alers is 1-1 in the UFC with a stoppage loss and a split decision win over an opponent who has never been ranked in the Top 100, so he should be fighting as if his job were on the line here, which it probably is.
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Fox Main Card Worth/Net Value: $55
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $23.50
Fox Sports 1 Valuation: $3 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $20.50
Event Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $75.50
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Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $685.50
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $119
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $566.50
Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $230.00