Another not so great week… but like every gambler in the red, I just can’t stop.
Since the “smart” parlay is supposed to be smart, I’ve been hesitant to post some of the underdogs the associated query has chosen recently. Why? Because often, the rating systems favor proven older betting underdogs on the tail-end of their career, rather than good, only somewhat proven younger fighters entering their prime. In this regard, the smart parlay is well… kind of dumb and the betters aren’t. Every year of age advantage for the younger fighter results in ~1.2% additional chance of winning. I am considering implementing this somehow, but I don’t always have birth dates for fighters and it further complicates things. We’ll see.
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Now for the options…
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed are betting underdogs, but WHR favorites.
- Fighters with “negative” odds are not listed. This can sometimes happen in pick’em fights.
- No maximum fighter amount.
- After 4 fighters (top 4 by WHR Win %), I will only add additional if there is reasonable value (WHR% – Odds%) >20%?
Historical Hit Rate: 1 of 5 (20.0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 12.4%, WHR: 30.4% – Bankroll: -$235.00
“The Safe” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have a higher chance to win per WHR than implied probability (odds).
- Fighters listed have at least a 75% chance of winning per WHR.
- If I can’t get at least one fighter, I’ll bend a little on this percentage.
- Goal is to have a total WHR win percentage of 50% or higher.
Historical Hit Rate: 4 of 6 (66.7%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 45.6%, WHR: 62.6% – Bankroll: $251.06
“The Smart” bet/parlay
- Fighters listed have the highest difference between Adjusted WHR win probability and implied probability (odds).
- I’ll sort all qualifying fighters by that difference and cut the parlay off where it seems logical.
- I’m going to aim for WHR favorites with >20% win difference and a max of 3 fighters.
Historical Hit Rate: 0 of 5 (0%) – Expected Hit Rate by Odds: 15.0%, WHR: 40.8% – Bankroll: -$500.00
Other things to consider….
- Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major sportsbooks.
- This is not “vanilla” WHR (although it is very advanced by default). Read the FAQ for more info.
- As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo. If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
- “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.
- If the “FM Agree” column is “YES”, the standard ratings agree with WHR that the underdog is indeed the underdog and vice-versa.
- Don’t blame us if you lose money. Gamble at your own risk.
- Bankrolls are based on $100 bets.