I myself am not a professional gambler, but I do like to take a look at the odds of a big/intriguing fight from time-to-time and compare it to the rating system, so here we are again.
BetUS, the online sportsbook offers Jones as a -210 favorite, which means that to win $100, you would actually have to bet $210. Now, comparing the odds to the perceived chance of winning is not like comparing oranges to oranges (more like oranges to nectarines), but doing so reveals that Jones would be a good bet if you think he has greater than a 67.7% chance of winning.
Jones does appear to have a lot going for him, as he’s younger, taller, rangier, and has never REALLY tasted defeat. Shogun has experience and one of the best (T)KO finishing rates in the history of MMA (5th all-time with a minimum of 15 wins), but is again coming off yet another knee injury — something that could jeopardize explosiveness and cardiovascular fitness, as we saw in his bout against Griffin.
Under normal circumstances, I would probably take Rua in the upset here, but I think with this latest knee injury, and Jones’s relentless ascent to the top, that at UFC 128, a true star will be born. Look for a nip/tuck first round possibly going to Rua, then Jones taking over, and eventually stopping Rua late in the 2nd round, or early in the 3rd. I think Jones is a good bet up to about -240. This is one of those cases that a higher rank (Rua’s #1 vs. Jones #5) means virtually nothing, as its simply going to be a “changing of the guard” situation.
This kind of dominant win SHOULD see Jones go to #1, Rua drop to #3, with Jones/Evans at #1/2, setting their bout up as a true Champ vs. #1 Contender situation.