It has been about 7 months since we made a bet in the “Gambling Analysis” series, so I thought it was a good time to pull it out of retirement. Although similar to the “Ratings vs. Odds” series, in this post we use the ratings more as a supporting factor rather than a guiding factor.
I am usually against betting on huge favorites, but I don’t think you can go wrong on Jones @ -857 (the current meta-average). He projects at somewhere around -1100 and I can see Sonnen plodding around the octagon, until he gets stopped late in the 2nd with a barrage of strikes. There is a chance that the return to 205 makes Sonnen a better fighter, but I just don’t see him being able to take Jones out.
Our readers who are into gaming might also be interested in playing online casino games with Gaming Club Mobile: check it out at www.gamingclub.com/mobile-casino.
For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:
- UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
- UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
- Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
- No Outcome Predicted
- UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
- Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
- Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
- StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
- No Contest
- UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
- Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
- UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
- UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
- No Outcome Predicted
- Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Split Decision Loss
- UFC 159 – Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen: Jones @ -857
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2) | Actual:
If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $255.95. If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t count them.
Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.