MMA Statistics – Page 3

Why I Started Paying Attention to Fighter Stats Before Placing My Bets

Posted on April 21, 2026 by A. J. Riot

I used to bet on MMA fights based on gut feeling, watching highlight reels and deciding this guy looks tougher than that guy. Lost about $340 in three months doing exactly that.

Then I met Carlos at a gym in Tampa back in March 2023. He’d been betting on fights for 7 years while actually making money—he turned $500 into $2,100 over 14 months. When I asked him how, he pulled up this massive spreadsheet with fighter records, striking accuracy, takedown defense rates, everything. He told me to check out Acebet official because they had some of the best odds for smaller promotions. But more importantly, he said I needed to stop betting like an idiot.

So I did.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal (04-25-2026)

Posted on April 20, 2026 by Jason

Featherweight (145)
[#5][#5UFC] Aljamain Sterling (25-5-0, +137) vs. [#9][#7UFC] Youssef Zalal (18-5-1, -163)
Aljamain Sterling is the All-Time #47 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Aljamain Sterling (2-1-0)
2025-08-23: W vs. [#10FW] Brian Ortega (16-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#2FW] Movsar Evloev (20-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#52FW] Calvin Kattar (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Youssef Zalal (3-0-0)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#24FW] Josh Emmett (19-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:38 of round 1
2025-02-15: W vs. [#52FW] Calvin Kattar (23-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-02: W vs. [*] Jack Shore (17-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 0:59 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Youssef Zalal	-163		59.49%
Elo K170	Aljamain Sterling	2205.95	+219.84	78.00%
Elo Modified	Aljamain Sterling	2100.66	+140.93	69.24%
Glicko-1	Aljamain Sterling	2142.27	+89.75	62.64%
WHR	Aljamain Sterling	1983.58	+119.75	66.58%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Aljamain Sterling 36.7, Youssef Zalal 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aljamain Sterling 245, Youssef Zalal 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7DD][#9P4P][#3][#3UFC] Norma Dumont (13-2-0, -178) vs. [#8][#8UFC] Joselyne Edwards (17-6-0, +148)

Last 3 Fights: Norma Dumont (3-0-0)
2025-11-01: W vs. [#4BW] Ketlen Vieira (15-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-14: W vs. [*] Irene Aldana (15-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-06: W vs. [*] Germaine de Randamie (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joselyne Edwards (3-0-0)
2026-02-21: W vs. [#22BW] Nora Cornolle (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:44 of round 2
2025-08-09: W vs. [#46BW] Priscila Cachoeira (13-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1
2025-04-26: W vs. [#42BW] Chelsea Chandler (6-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Norma Dumont	-178		61.36%
Elo K170	Norma Dumont	1886.36	+313.41	85.87%
Elo Modified	Norma Dumont	1847.29	+256.63	81.41%
Glicko-1	Norma Dumont	1802.31	+183.60	74.21%
WHR	Norma Dumont	1697.92	+191.48	75.07%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Norma Dumont 35.5, Joselyne Edwards 30.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Norma Dumont 175, Joselyne Edwards 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Norma Dumont leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#21][#15UFC] Alexander Hernandez (18-8-0, -149) vs. [#35][#23UFC] Rafa Garcia (18-4-0, +124)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (3-0-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#42LW] Diego Ferreira (19-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:46 of round 2
2025-08-16: W vs. [#101LW] Chase Hooper (16-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 1
2025-03-15: W vs. [#173LW] Kurt Holobaugh (21-10-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Rafa Garcia (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#54LW] Jared Gordon (21-8-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:27 of round 3
2025-03-29: W vs. [#364LW] Vinc Pichel (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-10-12: L vs. [#24LW] Grant Dawson (23-3-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:42 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexander Hernandez	-149		57.27%
Elo K170	Alexander Hernandez	1953.76	+50.18	57.17%
Elo Modified	Alexander Hernandez	1930.88	+55.66	57.94%
Glicko-1	Alexander Hernandez	2013.64	+107.91	65.05%
WHR	Rafa Garcia	1786.24	+30.94	54.44%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Hernandez 33.5, Rafa Garcia 31.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Hernandez 224, Rafa Garcia 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Hernandez leads 1-0
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 16, 2026 by Jason

2026 WHR Post #10

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott (04-18-2026)

Posted on April 13, 2026 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#28][#23UFC] Mike Malott (13-2-1, -568) vs. [#29][#24UFC] Gilbert Burns (22-9-0, +404)
Gilbert Burns is the All-Time #18 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mike Malott (3-0-0)
2025-10-18: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (29-15-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-05-10: W vs. [#82WW] Charles Radtke (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2024-11-02: W vs. [*] Trevin Giles (16-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (0-3-0)
2025-05-17: L vs. [#2WW] Michael Morales (19-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:39 of round 1
2024-09-07: L vs. [#8WW] Sean Brady (18-2-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 50-45)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#3WW] Jack Della Maddalena (18-3-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 3:43 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mike Malott	-568		81.08%
Elo K170	Gilbert Burns	1893.63	+22.77	53.27%
Elo Modified	Gilbert Burns	1876.89	+4.81	50.69%
Glicko-1	Gilbert Burns	1907.36	+11.99	51.73%
WHR	Mike Malott	1848.56	+66.21	59.41%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mike Malott 34.4, Gilbert Burns 39.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Malott 182, Gilbert Burns 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gilbert Burns leads 1-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#22][#19UFC] Charles Jourdain (17-8-1, -169) vs. [#26][#23UFC] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0, +139)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Jourdain (2-1-0)
2025-10-18: W vs. [#44BW] Davey Grant (17-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:05 of round 1
2024-11-02: W vs. [#53BW] Victor Henry (25-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:43 of round 2
2024-06-29: L vs. [#12FW] Jean Silva (17-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (1-2-0)
2025-07-19: L vs. [#17BW] Vinicius Oliveira (24-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-19: L vs. [#24BW] Rob Font (22-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-03-09: W vs. [*] Pedro Munhoz (20-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Charles Jourdain	-169		60.02%
Elo K170	Charles Jourdain	1789.42	+68.05	59.67%
Elo Modified	Charles Jourdain	1816.89	+81.43	61.51%
Glicko-1	Charles Jourdain	1898.97	+91.44	62.87%
WHR	Charles Jourdain	1797.93	+87.95	62.39%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Charles Jourdain 30.4, Kyler Phillips 30.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Jourdain 182, Kyler Phillips 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Charles Jourdain leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#88] Mandel Nallo (14-3-0, -159) vs. [#129][#59UFC] Jai Herbert (13-6-1, +129)

Last 3 Fights: Mandel Nallo (3-0-0)
2025-09-02: W vs. [#187LW] Samuel Silva (13-6-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 1
2024-08-30: W vs. [#654WW] Robert Seres (8-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:07 of round 1
2024-06-08: W vs. [*] Deivison Francisco Ribeir (27-13-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 4:19 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jai Herbert (1-2-0)
2025-03-22: L vs. [#67LW] Chris Padilla (17-6-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#452LW] Rolando Bedoya (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#28LW] Fares Ziam (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mandel Nallo	-159		58.43%
Elo K170	Mandel Nallo	1730.16	+188.25	74.72%
Elo Modified	Mandel Nallo	1744.01	+131.15	68.03%
Glicko-1	Mandel Nallo	1798.43	+138.75	68.97%
WHR	Jai Herbert	1661.44	+21.27	53.06%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mandel Nallo 36.7, Jai Herbert 37.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mandel Nallo 228, Jai Herbert 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 9, 2026 by Jason

2026 WHR Post #9

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Statistics vs Reality: How Much Do the Numbers Reflect a Fighter’s Level

Posted on April 3, 2026 by A. J. Riot

Modern combat sports rely heavily on data. Analysts track strikes, takedowns, control time, and many other indicators. Fans read these numbers and try to understand who holds the advantage before a fight. At first glance, statistics seem clear and objective. They offer structure and allow quick comparisons. However, numbers do not always show the full picture of a fighter’s level.

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 2, 2026 by Jason

2026 WHR Post #8

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan (04-04-2026)

Posted on March 30, 2026 by Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#12][#11UFC] Renato Carneiro (20-7-1, +161) vs. [#39][#25UFC] Chris Duncan (15-2-0, -195)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (1-2-0)
2025-06-28: L vs. [#11LW] Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#1P4P][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:05 of round 1
2024-09-28: W vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (17-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chris Duncan (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#64LW] Terrance McKinney (18-8-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 2:30 of round 1
2025-08-02: W vs. [#56LW] Mateusz Rebecki (21-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2025-03-22: W vs. [#154LW] Jordan Vucenic (15-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:42 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Chris Duncan	-195		63.30%
Elo K170	Renato Carneiro	1979.61	+92.25	62.97%
Elo Modified	Renato Carneiro	1965.58	+101.56	64.21%
Glicko-1	Renato Carneiro	2024.83	+110.04	65.33%
WHR	Renato Carneiro	1907.27	+74.22	60.52%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Renato Carneiro 36.9, Chris Duncan 32.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 280, Chris Duncan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#6DD][#11P4P][#3][#3UFC] Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0, -103) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0, -118)
Virna Jandiroba is the All-Time #49 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Virna Jandiroba (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#5DD][#5P4P][#2SW] Mackenzie Dern (16-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#5SW] Xiaonan Yan (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#9SW] Amanda Lemos (15-6-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2025-07-26: W vs. [#18SW] Amanda Ribas (12-7-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:59 of round 2
2024-11-23: L vs. [#5SW] Xiaonan Yan (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#20SW] Angela Hill (18-16-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Tabatha Ricci	-118		51.61%
Elo K170	Virna Jandiroba	1802.27	+117.05	66.23%
Elo Modified	Virna Jandiroba	1788.60	+95.14	63.36%
Glicko-1	Virna Jandiroba	1772.87	+78.33	61.08%
WHR	Virna Jandiroba	1734.08	+148.28	70.13%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Virna Jandiroba 37.8, Tabatha Ricci 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Virna Jandiroba 161, Tabatha Ricci 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Virna Jandiroba leads 3-2
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#59][#27UFC] Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (8-0-0, -1509) vs. [#74][#32UFC] Brendson Ribeiro (17-9-0, +809)

Last 3 Fights: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#188LHW] Raffael Cerqueira (11-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:33 of round 1
2025-08-26: W vs. [#158LHW] Alik Lorenz (7-2-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 0:30 of round 1
2024-09-26: W vs. [#191MW] Jacky Jeanne (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brendson Ribeiro (1-2-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#39LHW] Oumar Sy (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
2025-06-07: L vs. [#15LHW] Azamat Murzakanov (16-0-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
2025-03-15: W vs. [#85LHW] Diyar Nurgozhay (11-2-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:28 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	-1509		89.50%
Elo K170	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	1585.82	+108.68	65.15%
Elo Modified	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	1623.81	+135.49	68.57%
Glicko-1	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	1651.16	+137.51	68.82%
WHR	Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev	1640.86	+150.89	70.45%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 25.2, Brendson Ribeiro 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 133, Brendson Ribeiro 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-29-2026)

Posted on March 29, 2026 by Jason

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 26, 2026 by Jason

2026 WHR Post #7

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer (03-28-2026)

Posted on March 23, 2026 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#5][#5UFC] Israel Adesanya (24-5-0, -133) vs. [#19][#16UFC] Joe Pyfer (15-3-0, +108)
Israel Adesanya is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (0-3-0)
2025-02-01: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2024-08-17: L vs. [#9DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:38 of round 4
2023-09-09: L vs. [#4MW] Sean Strickland (30-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (3-0-0)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#33MW] Abusupiyan Magomedov (28-7-1) via Submission (Face Crank) in 1:46 of round 2
2025-06-07: W vs. [#21MW] Kelvin Gastelum (20-10-0) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#43MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (18-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Israel Adesanya	-133		54.27%
Elo K170	Israel Adesanya	2002.08	+46.55	56.66%
Elo Modified	Israel Adesanya	1983.42	+13.55	51.95%
Glicko-1	Joe Pyfer	2053.57	+36.79	55.28%
WHR	Israel Adesanya	1923.19	+22.17	53.19%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Israel Adesanya 36.7, Joe Pyfer 29.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Israel Adesanya 420, Joe Pyfer 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#5][#5UFC] Alexa Grasso (16-5-1, +114) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Maycee Barber (15-2-0, -156)
Alexa Grasso is the All-Time #20 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (0-2-1)
2025-05-10: L vs. [#7P4P][#9DD][#3FLY] Natalia Silva (20-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#1P4P][#2DD][#1FLY] Valentina Shevchenko (26-4-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-09-16: D vs. [#1P4P][#2DD][#1FLY] Valentina Shevchenko (26-4-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#13FLY] Karine Silva (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-03-09: W vs. [*] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#18SW] Amanda Ribas (12-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Maycee Barber	-156		56.59%
Elo K170	Maycee Barber	1882.70	+157.07	71.18%
Elo Modified	Maycee Barber	1836.92	+126.69	67.46%
Glicko-1	Maycee Barber	1833.34	+99.61	63.96%
WHR	Maycee Barber	1733.45	+16.17	52.33%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexa Grasso 32.6, Maycee Barber 27.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexa Grasso 322, Maycee Barber 112
Previous Match-up Record: Alexa Grasso leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#67][#42UFC] Yousri Belgaroui (9-3-0, +110) vs. [#77][#47UFC] Mansur Abdul-Malik (10-0-0, -156)

Last 3 Fights: Yousri Belgaroui (3-0-0)
2025-10-18: W vs. [#79MW] Azamat Bekoev (20-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2024-09-10: W vs. [#482MW] Taiga Iwasaki (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:34 of round 3
2024-02-18: W vs. [#143LHW] Ahmed Sami (12-5-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Mansur Abdul-Malik (3-0-0)
2025-12-06: W vs. [#483MW] Antonio Trocoli (13-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:09 of round 1
2025-06-14: W vs. [#142MW] Cody Brundage (11-10-0) via TUD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#235MW] Nick Klein (6-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:24 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mansur Abdul-Malik	-156		56.13%
Elo K170	Mansur Abdul-Malik	1650.12	+23.13	53.32%
Elo Modified	Mansur Abdul-Malik	1686.63	+35.04	55.02%
Glicko-1	Mansur Abdul-Malik	1718.78	+22.77	53.27%
WHR	Yousri Belgaroui	1630.92	+33.55	54.81%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Yousri Belgaroui 33.8, Mansur Abdul-Malik 28.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yousri Belgaroui 161, Mansur Abdul-Malik 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 19, 2026 by Jason

2026 WHR Post #6

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy (03-21-2026)

Posted on March 16, 2026 by Jason

Featherweight (145)
[*] Movsar Evloev (19-0-0, -226) vs. [#6][#5UFC] Lerone Murphy (17-0-1, +184)
Movsar Evloev is the All-Time #38 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Lerone Murphy is the All-Time #50 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Movsar Evloev (3-0-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#4FW] Aljamain Sterling (25-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#14FW] Arnold Allen (20-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#2FW] Diego Lopes (27-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2025-08-16: W vs. [#48FW] Aaron Pico (13-5-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 3:21 of round 1
2025-04-05: W vs. [#22FW] Josh Emmett (19-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#24FW] Dan Ige (19-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Movsar Evloev	-226		66.31%
Elo K170	Movsar Evloev	2253.99	+112.10	65.60%
Elo Modified	Movsar Evloev	2171.90	+79.38	61.23%
Glicko-1	Movsar Evloev	2192.27	+45.21	56.47%
WHR	Movsar Evloev	2063.98	+122.97	66.99%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Movsar Evloev 32.1, Lerone Murphy 34.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Movsar Evloev 469, Lerone Murphy 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#79][#39UFC] Luke Riley (12-0-0, -277) vs. [#104][#46UFC] Michael Aswell (11-3-0, +219)

Last 3 Fights: Luke Riley (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#165FW] Bogdan Grad (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 2
2025-03-15: W vs. [#801FW] Tariel Abbasov (9-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:09 of round 2
2024-09-21: W vs. [#882FW] Alexandre dos Santos Juni (7-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:05 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Aswell (2-1-0)
2025-10-11: W vs. [#209FW] Lucas Almeida (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbow) in 1:42 of round 1
2025-05-31: L vs. [#180LW] Bolaji Oki (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-12-15: W vs. [#396FW] Dorian Ramos (9-4-0) via SD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Luke Riley	-277		70.09%
Elo K170	Luke Riley	1698.55	+188.28	74.72%
Elo Modified	Luke Riley	1737.25	+196.21	75.57%
Glicko-1	Luke Riley	1739.29	+180.86	73.90%
WHR	Luke Riley	1650.12	+159.94	71.52%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Luke Riley 26.7, Michael Aswell 25.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Luke Riley 119, Michael Aswell 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Luke Riley leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#11][#11UFC] Michael Page (24-3-0, -202) vs. [#79][#50UFC] Sam Patterson (14-2-1, +166)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Page (2-1-0)
2025-08-16: W vs. [#14MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#24MW] Sharabutdin Magomedov (16-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#5WW] Ian Garry (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sam Patterson (3-0-0)
2025-09-06: W vs. [#204WW] Trey Waters (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1
2025-03-01: W vs. [#286MW] Danny Barlow (9-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:10 of round 1
2024-07-27: W vs. [#404WW] Kiefer Crosbie (10-6-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:50 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Michael Page	-202		64.02%
Elo K170	Michael Page	2126.40	+352.98	88.41%
Elo Modified	Michael Page	2104.47	+321.54	86.42%
Glicko-1	Michael Page	2172.13	+330.42	87.01%
WHR	Michael Page	2027.46	+268.12	82.39%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Michael Page 38.9, Sam Patterson 29.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Page 217, Sam Patterson 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 12, 2026 by Jason

2026 WHR Post #5

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Data-Driven Perspectives on Professional MMA Performance and Ranking Accuracy

Posted on March 10, 2026 by A. J. Riot

The Role of Quantifiable Metrics in Combat Sports

The world of mixed martial arts has moved far beyond the era of subjective matchmaking and “eye-test” assessments. Today, enthusiasts and professionals alike rely on complex algorithms to determine where a fighter stands in the global hierarchy. Systems like those utilized by FightMatrix provide an objective counterpoint to media-driven polls, using mathematical formulas to account for strength of schedule, recent activity, and the quality of opposition. This shift toward numerical clarity has changed how the community views athletic progression, turning the focus from mere wins and losses to the statistical probability of continued success.

When we look at the proprietary data used to rank thousands of active fighters, we see that the variance in MMA is significantly higher than in traditional sports like baseball or basketball. A single strike can negate years of statistical dominance. However, over a long enough timeline, the numbers tend to normalize. Rankings serve as a map of this normalization, allowing analysts to identify “outliers”—fighters whose current placement might not reflect their actual skill ceiling or their decline.

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