MMA Statistics – Page 3

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev (08-16-2025)

Posted on August 11, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1P4P][#4DD][#1][#1UFC] Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0, +174) vs. [#4][#4UFC] Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0, -210)
Dricus Du Plessis is the All-Time #4 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Khamzat Chimaev is the All-Time #31 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2025-02-08: W vs. [#2MW] Sean Strickland (29-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#5MW] Israel Adesanya (24-5-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:38 of round 4
2024-01-20: W vs. [#2MW] Sean Strickland (29-7-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#10MW] Robert Whittaker (26-9-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:34 of round 1
2023-10-21: W vs. [#4WW] Kamaru Usman (21-4-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:13 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Khamzat Chimaev	-210		64.98%
Elo K170	Dricus Du Plessis	2382.91	+88.41	62.46%
Elo Modified	Dricus Du Plessis	2309.13	+50.66	57.24%
Glicko-1	Dricus Du Plessis	2396.54	+42.21	56.04%
WHR	Dricus Du Plessis	2200.82	+45.60	56.53%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dricus Du Plessis 31.6, Khamzat Chimaev 31.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dricus Du Plessis 189, Khamzat Chimaev 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#8][#8UFC] Lerone Murphy (16-0-1, +116) vs. [*] Aaron Pico (13-4-0, -140)

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2025-04-05: W vs. [#12FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#19FW] Dan Ige (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#47FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Aaron Pico (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [*] Henry Corrales (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#65FW] Pedro Carvalho (13-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#311MW] James Gonzalez (11-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Aaron Pico	-140		55.74%
Elo K170	Lerone Murphy	2107.74	+240.04	79.93%
Elo Modified	Lerone Murphy	2049.17	+165.04	72.11%
Glicko-1	Lerone Murphy	2082.95	+156.57	71.12%
WHR	Lerone Murphy	1941.92	+177.74	73.56%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Lerone Murphy 34.0, Aaron Pico 28.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lerone Murphy 133, Aaron Pico 539
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#10][#10UFC] Geoff Neal (16-6-0, +212) vs. [#26][#22UFC] Carlos Prates (21-7-0, -260)
Geoff Neal is the All-Time #50 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (1-2-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#35WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:30 of round 1
2024-02-17: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (16-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#6WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (19-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (2-1-0)
2025-04-26: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (16-1-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#34WW] Neil Magny (30-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:50 of round 1
2024-08-17: W vs. [#66WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Prates	-260		69.26%
Elo K170	Geoff Neal	1973.64	+62.62	58.91%
Elo Modified	Geoff Neal	1977.26	+74.60	60.57%
Glicko-1	Geoff Neal	2045.31	+55.97	57.98%
WHR	Carlos Prates	1934.25	+34.28	54.92%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Geoff Neal 34.9, Carlos Prates 32.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Geoff Neal 294, Carlos Prates 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Prates leads 1-0
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on August 7, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez (08-09-2025)

Posted on August 4, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#10][#9UFC] Roman Dolidze (15-3-0, +258) vs. [#16][#13UFC] Anthony Hernandez (14-2-0, -323)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (3-0-0)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#18MW] Marvin Vettori (19-9-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2024-06-29: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#14MW] Brendan Allen (25-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#48MW] Michel Pereira (32-13-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:22 of round 5
2024-02-17: W vs. [#23MW] Roman Kopylov (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Anthony Hernandez	-323		73.21%
Elo K170	Anthony Hernandez	2085.29	+34.75	54.98%
Elo Modified	Anthony Hernandez	2072.54	+25.70	53.69%
Glicko-1	Anthony Hernandez	2141.02	+11.40	51.64%
WHR	Anthony Hernandez	2024.77	+89.16	62.55%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Roman Dolidze 37.0, Anthony Hernandez 31.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 147, Anthony Hernandez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Roman Dolidze leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#11][#9UFC] Steve Erceg (12-4-0, -400) vs. [#51][#23UFC] Ode Osbourne (13-8-0, +300)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (0-3-0)
2025-03-29: L vs. [#6DD][#7P4P][#2FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#6FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2024-05-04: L vs. [#4DD][#5P4P][#1FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (30-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Ode Osbourne (1-2-0)
2025-04-05: W vs. [#99FLY] Luis Gurule (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2024-09-14: L vs. [#91FLY] Ronaldo Rodriguez (18-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-27)
2024-03-16: L vs. [#83FLY] Jafel Filho (16-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:27 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Steve Erceg	-400		76.19%
Elo K170	Steve Erceg	1640.75	+109.70	65.28%
Elo Modified	Steve Erceg	1645.13	+130.71	67.97%
Glicko-1	Steve Erceg	1676.92	+174.36	73.18%
WHR	Steve Erceg	1663.23	+209.59	76.97%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Steve Erceg 30.0, Ode Osbourne 33.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steve Erceg 133, Ode Osbourne 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#12][#11UFC] Angela Hill (18-14-0, +153) vs. [#13][#12UFC] Iasmin Lucindo (17-6-0, -184)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#25SW] Ketlen Souza (15-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#7SW] Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#38SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Iasmin Lucindo (2-1-0)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#4SW] Amanda Lemos (15-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-05: W vs. [*] Marina Rodriguez (17-6-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#49SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Iasmin Lucindo	-184		62.10%
Elo K170	Angela Hill	1635.09	+40.21	55.76%
Elo Modified	Angela Hill	1606.47	+46.65	56.67%
Glicko-1	Angela Hill	1596.50	+54.19	57.74%
WHR	Angela Hill	1541.10	+65.28	59.29%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Angela Hill 40.6, Iasmin Lucindo 23.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 175, Iasmin Lucindo 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on July 31, 2025 by Jason

We hit a huge parlay last week! Let’s try again..

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on July 24, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays are still in the green! Woohoo!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder (07-26-2025)

Posted on July 21, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#6][#6UFC] Robert Whittaker (26-8-0, -162) vs. [#18][#15UFC] Reinier de Ridder (20-2-0, +133)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #4 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#4MW] Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:34 of round 1
2024-06-22: W vs. [#30MW] Ikram Aliskerov (16-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#10MW] Paulo Costa (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Reinier de Ridder (3-0-0)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#34MW] Bo Nickal (7-1-0) via TKO (Knees) in 1:53 of round 2
2025-01-18: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (28-14-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 1
2024-11-09: W vs. [#48MW] Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:44 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Robert Whittaker	-162		59.02%
Elo K170	Robert Whittaker	2124.73	+148.96	70.21%
Elo Modified	Robert Whittaker	2110.57	+109.07	65.20%
Glicko-1	Robert Whittaker	2173.56	+98.11	63.76%
WHR	Robert Whittaker	2000.64	+34.83	55.00%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Robert Whittaker 34.6, Reinier de Ridder 34.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 273, Reinier de Ridder 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#3][#3UFC] Petr Yan (18-5-0, -375) vs. [#19][#17UFC] Marcus McGhee (10-1-0, +289)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (2-1-0)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#7BW] Yadong Song (22-9-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#1P4P][#2DD][#1BW] Merab Dvalishvili (20-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Marcus McGhee (3-0-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#24BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#365BW] Gaston Bolanos (8-5-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:29 of round 3
2023-08-12: W vs. [*] J.P. Buys (9-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:19 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Petr Yan	-375		75.43%
Elo K170	Petr Yan	2126.82	+441.67	92.70%
Elo Modified	Petr Yan	2157.81	+467.66	93.66%
Glicko-1	Petr Yan	2214.70	+451.07	93.07%
WHR	Petr Yan	2073.60	+465.75	93.59%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Petr Yan 32.4, Marcus McGhee 35.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Petr Yan 245, Marcus McGhee 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#29][#22UFC] Sharabutdin Magomedov (15-1-0, -555) vs. [#42][#30UFC] Marc-Andre Barriault (18-9-0, +400)

Last 3 Fights: Sharabutdin Magomedov (2-1-0)
2025-02-01: L vs. [#16MW] Michael Page (23-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#100MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfists) in 4:52 of round 1
2024-08-03: W vs. [#47MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (21-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Marc-Andre Barriault (1-2-0)
2025-05-10: W vs. [#66MW] Bruno Silva (23-13-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:27 of round 1
2024-11-02: L vs. [#59MW] Dustin Stoltzfus (16-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 1
2024-06-29: L vs. [#19MW] Joe Pyfer (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sharabutdin Magomedov	-555		80.90%
Elo K170	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1853.64	+291.74	84.28%
Elo Modified	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1865.19	+242.12	80.12%
Glicko-1	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1926.51	+242.50	80.15%
WHR	Sharabutdin Magomedov	1855.07	+261.83	81.87%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sharabutdin Magomedov 31.2, Marc-Andre Barriault 35.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sharabutdin Magomedov 175, Marc-Andre Barriault 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on July 17, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays are back in the green! Woohoo!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3 (07-19-2025)

Posted on July 14, 2025 by Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#4][#4UFC] Max Holloway (26-8-0, -126) vs. [#6][#6UFC] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0, +104)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #5 ranked Lightweight and #26 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#4P4P][#2LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3
2024-04-13: W vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (1-2-0)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#2DD][#3P4P][#1LW] Islam Makhachev (27-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:42 of round 5
2024-03-09: W vs. [#25LW] Benoit St. Denis (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2023-07-29: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Max Holloway	-126		53.21%
Elo K170	Max Holloway	2262.92	+25.76	53.70%
Elo Modified	Max Holloway	2221.02	+46.60	56.67%
Glicko-1	Max Holloway	2300.02	+40.62	55.82%
WHR	Max Holloway	2119.62	+112.04	65.59%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Max Holloway 33.6, Dustin Poirier 36.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 266, Dustin Poirier 413
Previous Match-up Record: Dustin Poirier leads 2-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 6-5
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Middleweight (185)
[#11][#10UFC] Paulo Costa (14-4-0, +222) vs. [#22][#19UFC] Roman Kopylov (14-3-0, -272)
Paulo Costa is the All-Time #27 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Costa (1-2-0)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#2MW] Sean Strickland (29-7-0) via SD (49-46, 50-45, 46-49)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#7MW] Robert Whittaker (26-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Luke Rockhold (16-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Kopylov (2-1-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#26WW] Chris Curtis (32-12-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:59 of round 3
2024-06-01: W vs. [#62MW] Cesar Almeida (7-1-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#13MW] Anthony Hernandez (14-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Roman Kopylov	-272		70.18%
Elo K170	Paulo Costa	1895.83	+59.57	58.49%
Elo Modified	Paulo Costa	1962.10	+131.01	68.01%
Glicko-1	Paulo Costa	2053.41	+169.37	72.61%
WHR	Paulo Costa	1860.66	+24.63	53.54%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Paulo Costa 34.2, Roman Kopylov 33.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paulo Costa 413, Roman Kopylov 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#15][#12UFC] Kevin Holland (28-13-0, -436) vs. [#30][#24UFC] Daniel Rodriguez (19-5-0, +327)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#21WW] Vicente Luque (23-11-1) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:03 of round 2
2025-03-22: W vs. [#47WW] Gunnar Nelson (19-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#17MW] Reinier de Ridder (20-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#50WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 3
2024-10-12: W vs. [#57WW] Alex Morono (24-12-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#21MW] Kelvin Gastelum (19-10-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kevin Holland	-436		77.64%
Elo K170	Kevin Holland	1968.48	+102.06	64.28%
Elo Modified	Kevin Holland	1961.99	+136.07	68.64%
Glicko-1	Kevin Holland	2064.18	+193.38	75.27%
WHR	Kevin Holland	1868.00	+154.25	70.85%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kevin Holland 32.7, Daniel Rodriguez 38.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 42, Daniel Rodriguez 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kevin Holland leads 3-2
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on July 10, 2025 by Jason

We took off last week. Time to get back to it!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-06-2025)

Posted on July 6, 2025 by Jason

Notable Info

Fluctuations caused by semi-annual community adjustment.

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on June 26, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira (06-28-2025)

Posted on June 23, 2025 by Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1DD][#5P4P][#1FW][#1FWUFC] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0, -417) vs. [#3][#3UFC] Charles Oliveira (35-10-0, +321)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #31 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#4LW] Max Holloway (26-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3
2024-02-17: W vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#11FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (2-1-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#22LW] Michael Chandler (23-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [*] Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ilia Topuria	-417		77.25%
Elo K170	Ilia Topuria	2330.19	+23.95	53.44%
Elo Modified	Charles Oliveira	2305.68	+31.04	54.45%
Glicko-1	Charles Oliveira	2407.19	+20.65	52.97%
WHR	Ilia Topuria	2276.84	+94.62	63.29%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ilia Topuria 28.4, Charles Oliveira 35.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 245, Charles Oliveira 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ilia Topuria leads 1-0
.

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#4P4P][#5DD][#1][#1UFC] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0, -259) vs. [#5][#4UFC] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0, +211)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #4 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Kai Kara-France is the All-Time #16 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#14FLY] Kai Asakura (21-5-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2024-05-04: W vs. [#10FLY] Steve Erceg (12-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#6DD][#2FLY] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Kai Kara-France (1-2-0)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#10FLY] Steve Erceg (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2023-06-03: L vs. [#9FLY] Amir Albazi (17-2-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#8DD][#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 4:34 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexandre Pantoja	-259		69.17%
Elo K170	Alexandre Pantoja	2201.64	+360.73	88.86%
Elo Modified	Alexandre Pantoja	2112.27	+258.94	81.62%
Glicko-1	Alexandre Pantoja	2188.07	+255.80	81.34%
WHR	Alexandre Pantoja	2045.28	+204.80	76.48%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexandre Pantoja 35.2, Kai Kara-France 32.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 203, Kai Kara-France 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexandre Pantoja leads 5-2
.

Flyweight (125)
[#13P4P][#6DD][#2][#2UFC] Brandon Royval (17-7-0, -118) vs. [#13][#10UFC] Joshua Van (14-2-0, -102)
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #14 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#6FLY] Tatsuro Taira (16-1-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#8DD][#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#4P4P][#5DD][#1FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Joshua Van (3-0-0)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#38FLY] Bruno Silva (14-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 3
2025-03-08: W vs. [#45FLY] Rei Tsuruya (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#59FLY] Cody Durden (17-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-26, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Brandon Royval	-118		51.73%
Elo K170	Brandon Royval	2042.96	+190.25	74.93%
Elo Modified	Brandon Royval	1871.32	+52.49	57.50%
Glicko-1	Brandon Royval	1918.10	+43.45	56.22%
WHR	Brandon Royval	1812.29	+129.14	67.77%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Royval 32.8, Joshua Van 23.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Royval 259, Joshua Van 21
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Royval leads 1-0
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on June 19, 2025 by Jason

We’re on a losing streak. Gotta get it together!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree (06-21-2025)

Posted on June 16, 2025 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#6][#6UFC] Jamahal Hill (13-3-0, +132) vs. [#11][#8UFC] Khalil Rountree (13-7-0, -160)
Jamahal Hill is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jamahal Hill (1-2-0)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#3LHW] Jiri Prochazka (31-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 3
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LHW] Alex Pereira (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (2-1-0)
2024-10-05: L vs. [#2LHW] Alex Pereira (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 4
2023-12-09: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-12: W vs. [#57HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Khalil Rountree	-160		58.81%
Elo K170	Jamahal Hill	1926.61	+42.10	56.03%
Elo Modified	Jamahal Hill	1913.55	+73.14	60.37%
Glicko-1	Jamahal Hill	1990.07	+96.99	63.61%
WHR	Jamahal Hill	1806.38	+38.93	55.58%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jamahal Hill 34.1, Khalil Rountree 35.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jamahal Hill 154, Khalil Rountree 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#16][#12UFC] Rafael Fiziev (12-4-0, -113) vs. [#17][#13UFC] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-5-0, -108)
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #50 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (0-3-0)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#8LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
2023-03-18: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ignacio Bahamondes (3-0-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#27LW] Jalin Turner (14-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1
2024-09-14: W vs. [#56LW] Manuel Torres (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1
2024-04-06: W vs. [#164LW] Christos Giagos (20-12-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 3:34 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Rafael Fiziev	-113		50.53%
Elo K170	Rafael Fiziev	1897.31	+7.72	51.11%
Elo Modified	Rafael Fiziev	1897.44	+17.85	52.57%
Glicko-1	Ignacio Bahamondes	1979.74	+37.43	55.36%
WHR	Ignacio Bahamondes	1881.86	+39.41	55.65%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafael Fiziev 32.3, Ignacio Bahamondes 27.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Fiziev 105, Ignacio Bahamondes 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#7][#6UFC] Curtis Blaydes (18-5-0, -286) vs. [#71] Rizvan Kuniev (12-2-1, +230)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (1-2-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#9P4P][#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1
2024-03-09: W vs. [#8HW+] Jailton Almeida (22-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2023-04-22: L vs. [#6HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (19-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rizvan Kuniev (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2024-08-20: W vs. [#205HW+] Hugo Cunha (8-3-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-04-07: NC vs. [#12HW+] Renan Ferreira (13-4-0)
2022-03-11: W vs. [#227HW+] Anthony Hamilton (22-12-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:17 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Curtis Blaydes	-286		70.97%
Elo K170	Curtis Blaydes	2008.33	+363.39	89.01%
Elo Modified	Curtis Blaydes	2003.36	+328.99	86.92%
Glicko-1	Curtis Blaydes	2078.02	+336.12	87.38%
WHR	Curtis Blaydes	1975.80	+212.36	77.25%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Curtis Blaydes 34.3, Rizvan Kuniev 33.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 329, Rizvan Kuniev 305
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Curtis Blaydes leads 1-0
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on June 12, 2025 by Jason

Last week didn’t go so well……… let’s try again!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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