MMA Statistics – Page 3

Data in the octagon: how predictive analytics are transforming fight strategy and ranking accuracy in MMA

Posted on February 17, 2026 by A. J. Riot

Numbers are in the corner now. They watch every exchange, every takedown, every clinch. Predictive analytics — the use of historical and live fight performance data to forecast outcomes and reveal patterns — is moving from hobbyist projects into coaching rooms and broadcast desks. Fans, coaches and promoters pay attention. The landscape of MMA analytics is changing how fighters prepare, how matches are ranked, and how the sport is understood.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mma/ufc/ufc-231-max-holloway-proves-hes-class/

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez (02-21-2026)

Posted on February 16, 2026 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#4][#4UFC] Sean Strickland (29-7-0, +228) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Anthony Hernandez (15-2-0, -283)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #18 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (1-2-0)
2025-02-08: L vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#9MW] Paulo Costa (15-4-0) via SD (49-46, 50-45, 46-49)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2025-08-09: W vs. [#16MW] Roman Dolidze (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:45 of round 4
2025-02-22: W vs. [#6MW] Brendan Allen (26-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#70MW] Michel Pereira (32-14-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:22 of round 5

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Anthony Hernandez	-283		70.78%
Elo K170	Anthony Hernandez	2161.82	+62.50	58.90%
Elo Modified	Anthony Hernandez	2129.30	+69.39	59.86%
Glicko-1	Anthony Hernandez	2228.09	+90.54	62.74%
WHR	Anthony Hernandez	2085.11	+102.92	64.39%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sean Strickland 35.0, Anthony Hernandez 32.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 378, Anthony Hernandez 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Hernandez leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#22][#19UFC] Geoff Neal (16-7-0, -195) vs. [#30][#25UFC] Uros Medic (12-3-0, +161)

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (1-2-0)
2025-08-16: L vs. [#8WW] Carlos Prates (23-7-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 4:59 of round 1
2024-10-26: W vs. [*] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:30 of round 1
2024-02-17: L vs. [#5WW] Ian Garry (17-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (2-1-0)
2025-11-08: W vs. [#39WW] Muslim Salikhov (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:03 of round 1
2025-08-09: W vs. [#584WW] Gilbert Urbina (7-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 1
2025-01-11: L vs. [#51WW] Punahele Soriano (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:31 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Geoff Neal	-195		63.30%
Elo K170	Geoff Neal	1873.48	+153.37	70.74%
Elo Modified	Geoff Neal	1868.41	+133.14	68.27%
Glicko-1	Geoff Neal	1946.47	+154.43	70.87%
WHR	Geoff Neal	1835.79	+125.33	67.29%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Geoff Neal 35.5, Uros Medic 32.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Geoff Neal 189, Uros Medic 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#19][#14UFC] Dan Ige (19-10-0, +172) vs. [#24][#16UFC] Melquizael Costa (25-7-0, -212)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2025-07-19: L vs. [#10FW] Patricio Freire (37-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#41FW] Sean Woodson (13-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 3
2024-10-26: L vs. [#7FW] Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Melquizael Costa (3-0-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#67FW] Morgan Charriere (21-12-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:14 of round 1
2025-05-17: W vs. [#59FW] Julian Erosa (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#113FW] Christian Rodriguez (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Melquizael Costa	-212		64.89%
Elo K170	Melquizael Costa	1945.24	+142.84	69.47%
Elo Modified	Melquizael Costa	1925.28	+140.47	69.18%
Glicko-1	Melquizael Costa	1965.58	+132.86	68.24%
WHR	Melquizael Costa	1789.59	+15.43	52.22%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dan Ige 34.5, Melquizael Costa 29.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Ige 217, Melquizael Costa 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on February 12, 2026 by Jason

Small tweaks on the “safe” bet amounts. I didn’t really think that one through.

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira (02-07-2026)

Posted on February 2, 2026 by Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#6][#6UFC] Mario Bautista (16-3-0, -206) vs. [#17][#16UFC] Vinicius Oliveira (24-3-0, +164)

Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#14BW] Patrick Mix (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-10-05: W vs. [*] Jose Aldo (32-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Vinicius Oliveira (3-0-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#24BW] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#40BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#39BW] Ricky Simon (23-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mario Bautista	-206		63.99%
Elo K170	Mario Bautista	2061.44	+81.52	61.52%
Elo Modified	Mario Bautista	2010.55	+32.43	54.65%
Glicko-1	Mario Bautista	2046.24	+20.44	52.94%
WHR	Mario Bautista	1894.27	+15.45	52.22%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mario Bautista 32.6, Vinicius Oliveira 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mario Bautista 105, Vinicius Oliveira 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#4][#4UFC] Kyoji Horiguchi (35-5-0, -351) vs. [*] Amir Albazi (17-2-0, +265)
Kyoji Horiguchi is the All-Time #18 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Amir Albazi is the All-Time #44 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kyoji Horiguchi (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#14FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (18-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:18 of round 3
2024-12-31: W vs. [#112FLY] Nkazimulo Zulu (16-8-1) via UD ()
2024-06-09: W vs. [#11BW] Sergio Pettis (25-7-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: L vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#8FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-12-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#133FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kyoji Horiguchi	-351		73.96%
Elo K170	Kyoji Horiguchi	2131.83	+322.80	86.51%
Elo Modified	Kyoji Horiguchi	2091.75	+319.43	86.28%
Glicko-1	Kyoji Horiguchi	2153.80	+327.02	86.79%
WHR	Kyoji Horiguchi	2063.39	+361.86	88.92%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kyoji Horiguchi 35.3, Amir Albazi 32.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyoji Horiguchi 77, Amir Albazi 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#6][#5UFC] Jailton Almeida (22-4-0, -149) vs. [#23][#15UFC] Rizvan Kuniev (12-3-1, +122)
Jailton Almeida is the All-Time #48 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jailton Almeida (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#3HW+] Alexander Volkov (39-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-01-18: W vs. [#9HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 1
2024-06-01: W vs. [#18HW+] Alexander Romanov (20-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rizvan Kuniev (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2025-06-21: L vs. [#7HW+] Curtis Blaydes (19-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-20: W vs. [#195HW+] Hugo Cunha (8-3-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-04-07: NC vs. [#12HW+] Renan Ferreira (13-5-0)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jailton Almeida	-149		57.05%
Elo K170	Jailton Almeida	1950.94	+324.74	86.64%
Elo Modified	Jailton Almeida	2021.91	+316.10	86.05%
Glicko-1	Jailton Almeida	2131.64	+331.45	87.08%
WHR	Jailton Almeida	1989.07	+170.11	72.70%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jailton Almeida 34.6, Rizvan Kuniev 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jailton Almeida 105, Rizvan Kuniev 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Current MMA Rankings Updated (02-01-2026)

Posted on February 1, 2026 by Jason

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Jason

Back for 2026! There have been some tweaks (noted below by strikethroughs and blue text.)

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
~~Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.~~
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 (01-31-2026)

Posted on January 26, 2026 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#11P4P][#1][#1UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0, -159) vs. [#3][#3UFC] Diego Lopes (27-7-0, +131)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Diego Lopes is the All-Time #32 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#3FW] Diego Lopes (27-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1P4P][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#12FW] Jean Silva (17-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2025-04-12: L vs. [#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#9FW] Brian Ortega (16-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexander Volkanovski	-159		58.64%
Elo K170	Alexander Volkanovski	2240.10	+165.98	72.22%
Elo Modified	Alexander Volkanovski	2213.98	+156.81	71.15%
Glicko-1	Alexander Volkanovski	2255.57	+116.07	66.11%
WHR	Alexander Volkanovski	2182.54	+161.54	71.71%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 37.3, Diego Lopes 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 294, Diego Lopes 140
Previous Match-up Record: Alexander Volkanovski leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#7][#6UFC] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0, -324) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Dan Hooker (24-13-0, +252)
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#13LW] Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2025-09-06: W vs. [#48LW] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-05-10: W vs. [#321LW] Kyle Prepolec (18-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:35 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2025-11-22: L vs. [#10DD][#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (23-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:34 of round 2
2024-08-17: W vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#27LW] Jalin Turner (15-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Benoit St. Denis	-324		72.89%
Elo K170	Benoit St. Denis	2090.93	+19.55	52.81%
Elo Modified	Benoit St. Denis	2057.92	+93.97	63.20%
Glicko-1	Benoit St. Denis	2163.12	+208.22	76.83%
WHR	Benoit St. Denis	1943.71	+111.51	65.52%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 30.1, Dan Hooker 35.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 77, Dan Hooker 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#12][#10UFC] Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0, -115) vs. [#48][#26UFC] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0, -107)
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #49 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (1-2-0)
2025-06-21: W vs. [#26LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (27-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-03-08: W vs. [#49LW] Bobby Green (33-17-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#297WW] James Llontop (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Rafael Fiziev	-115		50.85%
Elo K170	Rafael Fiziev	1980.59	+229.53	78.94%
Elo Modified	Rafael Fiziev	1956.18	+204.16	76.41%
Glicko-1	Rafael Fiziev	2023.82	+213.10	77.32%
WHR	Rafael Fiziev	1947.27	+192.29	75.15%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafael Fiziev 32.9, Mauricio Ruffy 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Fiziev 224, Mauricio Ruffy 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

Current MMA Rankings Updated (01-25-2026)

Posted on January 25, 2026 by Jason

Why Immediate Outcome Systems Are Influencing How Combat Sports Data Is Interpreted

Posted on January 21, 2026 by A. J. Riot

Combat sports analysis has moved far beyond post-fight recaps and static rankings. Professionals now evaluate performance through live indicators, momentum shifts, and evolving statistical context. This shift reflects broader changes in how information is consumed and trusted under pressure.

Audiences and analysts alike want clarity while events unfold, not only after outcomes are finalized. Delayed interpretation weakens relevance because fight dynamics change rapidly. Over time, this expectation reshaped how combat sports data platforms present value.

For decision-makers, analysts, and media professionals, this change is structural. Insight now depends on how quickly systems surface meaningful signals rather than how thoroughly they summarize finished events.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (01-24-2026)

Posted on January 19, 2026 by Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#5][#5UFC] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0, +191) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Paddy Pimblett (23-3-0, -235)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #9 ranked Lightweight and #49 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#12LW] Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4LW] Max Holloway (27-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-07-29: W vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#25LW] Michael Chandler (23-10-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:07 of round 3
2024-07-27: W vs. [#49LW] Bobby Green (33-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2023-12-16: W vs. [*] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Paddy Pimblett	-235		67.12%
Elo K170	Justin Gaethje	2286.80	+188.51	74.75%
Elo Modified	Justin Gaethje	2234.53	+168.55	72.52%
Glicko-1	Justin Gaethje	2284.76	+131.23	68.04%
WHR	Paddy Pimblett	2025.84	+0.07	50.01%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Justin Gaethje 37.2, Paddy Pimblett 31.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 322, Paddy Pimblett 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#3][#3UFC] Sean OMalley (18-3-0, -206) vs. [#6][#6UFC] Yadong Song (22-9-1, +168)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Yadong Song is the All-Time #50 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (1-2-0)
2025-06-07: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via Submission (North-South Choke) in 4:42 of round 3
2024-09-14: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#12BW] Marlon Vera (24-11-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [*] Henry Cejudo (16-6-0) via TUD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#1DD][#4P4P][#1BW] Petr Yan (20-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#37BW] Chris Gutierrez (22-7-2) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean OMalley	-206		64.34%
Elo K170	Sean OMalley	2094.90	+55.55	57.93%
Elo Modified	Sean OMalley	2059.31	+30.67	54.40%
Glicko-1	Sean OMalley	2115.11	+23.44	53.37%
WHR	Sean OMalley	1949.75	+35.98	55.16%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sean OMalley 31.2, Yadong Song 28.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 231, Yadong Song 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sean OMalley leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#8][#7UFC] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (16-2-0, -340) vs. [#13][#10UFC] Derrick Lewis (29-12-0, +260)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #28 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (2-1-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#23HW+] Shamil Gaziev (14-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:22 of round 1
2025-11-01: W vs. [#16HW+] Ante Delija (26-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:59 of round 1
2025-08-23: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (20-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2025-07-12: W vs. [#83HW+] Tallison Teixeira (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:35 of round 1
2024-05-11: W vs. [#26HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3
2023-11-04: L vs. [#6HW+] Jailton Almeida (22-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	-340		73.55%
Elo K170	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	1969.65	+104.60	64.62%
Elo Modified	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	1969.93	+115.38	66.02%
Glicko-1	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	2042.19	+104.30	64.57%
WHR	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	1888.33	+89.51	62.61%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 34.3, Derrick Lewis 40.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 63, Derrick Lewis 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

2025 WHR Betting Wrap-Up

Posted on January 18, 2026 by Jason

Final stats from the WHR betting posts for 2025…

We made 44 weekly WHR posts in 2025.
The “Underdog” parlays turned a profit of $1,524.01, hitting on 11 of 39.
The “Safe” parlays turned a profit of $394.12, hitting on 24 of 35.
Expectations were that we’d hit at a higher rate, especially on the dogs (expected 44.7% vs. 28.2%).

I’d have to analyze, but it feels like there are two areas for potential improvement:

Improve hit rate – Stricter guidelines on past fighter experience and/or eliminating some or all of the regional promotions.
Increase profit – Scaling the bet amount based on the perceived certainty of beating the odds.

We can never objectively beat the gamblers on properly handling fighters with previous non-MMA combat experience. This got us a couple of times in the past… Any ideas for handling this objectively?

The series will return either this week or next, assuming there are qualifying bets!

Momentum vs Statistics: What Really Decides a Fight?

Posted on January 8, 2026 by A. J. Riot

Predicting the result of a professional fight is never as simple as comparing records on paper. Some fans believe that a competitor riding a wave of recent victories has a natural advantage, while others trust detailed performance numbers collected over many years. The truth is that both momentum and statistics influence outcomes in different ways, and understanding how they interact gives a clearer view of what really decides a contest.

Keep Reading

Biggest Men’s Pro MMA Upsets of All-Time

Posted on January 7, 2026 by Jason

And now for the men’s biggest upsets of all-time. In case you missed the guidelines or the women’s list, click here!

The Upsets

#5 – (2268pts) [1-2-0] Tristan Yunker W(SUB) [18-3-0] Clay Guida
KOTC – Redemption on the River (February 17, 2006)

I remember this fight being one of the first big upsets that I noticed when Fight Matrix came online. I thought it was some kind of data error. We all know who Clay Guida is, while Yunker himself had a decent career, going 11-5 before the wheels came off and he started fighting bigger, well known opposition like Hector Lombard.

Keep Reading

Biggest Women’s Pro MMA Upsets of All-Time

Posted on January 6, 2026 by Jason

While completing our MMA Awards post for 2025, I started to wonder what the biggest upsets of all-time were. We have four different upset awards, each using different rules and/or rating systems.

In this post, we will consider all pro fights with only one exception — the winner must have a pro loss prior to the fight date. I will however, post some notable fights that would’ve otherwise qualified.

To determine the order, we will use ratings from the Elo and Glicko systems, total the pre-fight ratings for each fighter, then order by the difference.

Prepare to read about some fighters you’ve probably never heard of…

Upsets

#5 – (1497pts) [3-4-0] Shana Dobson W(TKO) [9-1-0] Mariya Agapova
UFC on ESPN 15 (September 22, 2020)

I’m a little surprised that a UFC fight made the cut, especially in the women’s list. As far as the outcome, ESPN referred to it as a “historic upset”. From what I recall, Agapova came into the UFC with a ton of hype and a pretty nice 9-1 record. Dobson, at around +850, derailed the hype train.

Keep Reading

The 2025 Fight Matrix MMA Awards

Posted on January 2, 2026 by Jason

Our awards are very similar to those given by other outlets, but for more specifics, see the MMA Awards page.

Men’s Fighter of the Year

This year was a strange one for the category. Merab Dvalishvili fought four times, and was in the lead for essentially the entire year before ending it with a loss against Petr Yan. His only competition for the award was Islam Makhachev, who wrote his name in the history books by becoming a “champ-champ”, but was only half as active as Merab. I’ve said many times that I’d rather more draws be awarded than watch judges score fights for the wrong guys. And for that very reason, Merab and Islam will share the award for 2025.

Winner [tie] – Merab Dvalishvili, Islam Makhachev

3rd Place – Joshua Van

Honorable Mention – Petr Yan

Keep Reading