2026 WHR Post #5
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
The world of mixed martial arts has moved far beyond the era of subjective matchmaking and “eye-test” assessments. Today, enthusiasts and professionals alike rely on complex algorithms to determine where a fighter stands in the global hierarchy. Systems like those utilized by FightMatrix provide an objective counterpoint to media-driven polls, using mathematical formulas to account for strength of schedule, recent activity, and the quality of opposition. This shift toward numerical clarity has changed how the community views athletic progression, turning the focus from mere wins and losses to the statistical probability of continued success.
When we look at the proprietary data used to rank thousands of active fighters, we see that the variance in MMA is significantly higher than in traditional sports like baseball or basketball. A single strike can negate years of statistical dominance. However, over a long enough timeline, the numbers tend to normalize. Rankings serve as a map of this normalization, allowing analysts to identify “outliers”—fighters whose current placement might not reflect their actual skill ceiling or their decline.
Featherweight (145)
[#16][#13UFC] Josh Emmett (19-6-0, +393) vs. [#25][#16UFC] Kevin Vallejos (17-1-0, -546)
Josh Emmett is the All-Time #23 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (1-2-0)
2025-10-04: L vs. [#7FW] Youssef Zalal (18-5-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:38 of round 1
2025-04-05: L vs. [#6FW] Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#15BW] Bryce Mitchell (18-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Kevin Vallejos (3-0-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#33FW] Giga Chikadze (15-6-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist and Elbows) in 1:29 of round 2
2025-08-02: W vs. [#144FW] Danny Silva (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#194FW] Seung Woo Choi (11-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kevin Vallejos | -546 | 80.64% | |
| Elo K170 | Josh Emmett | 1839.12 | +29.38 | 54.22% |
| Elo Modified | Josh Emmett | 1818.75 | +13.81 | 51.99% |
| Glicko-1 | Kevin Vallejos | 1870.17 | +23.17 | 53.33% |
| WHR | Kevin Vallejos | 1771.78 | +37.35 | 55.36% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Josh Emmett 41.0, Kevin Vallejos 24.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 161, Kevin Vallejos 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#6][#6UFC] Amanda Lemos (15-5-1, +159) vs. [#9][#9UFC] Gillian Robertson (16-8-0, -196)
Last 3 Fights: Amanda Lemos (1-2-0)
2025-09-13: L vs. [#4SW] Tatiana Suarez (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#10SW] Iasmin Lucindo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-07-20: L vs. [#6DD][#3SW] Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:48 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Gillian Robertson (3-0-0)
2025-05-03: W vs. [*] Marina Rodriguez (17-6-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 2
2024-11-09: W vs. [#46SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2024-06-29: W vs. [*] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Gillian Robertson | -196 | 63.16% | |
| Elo K170 | Amanda Lemos | 1703.91 | +38.32 | 55.49% |
| Elo Modified | Gillian Robertson | 1702.56 | +8.54 | 51.23% |
| Glicko-1 | Gillian Robertson | 1727.06 | +45.33 | 56.49% |
| WHR | Gillian Robertson | 1623.98 | +14.74 | 52.12% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Amanda Lemos 38.8, Gillian Robertson 30.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Lemos 182, Gillian Robertson 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#32][#21UFC] Ion Cutelaba (19-11-1, +169) vs. [#34][#22UFC] Oumar Sy (12-1-0, -208)
Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (2-1-0)
2025-05-10: L vs. [#27LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (19-7-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 27-30)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#117LHW] Ibo Aslan (14-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:51 of round 1
2024-09-28: W vs. [#66LHW] Ivan Erslan (14-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Oumar Sy (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: W vs. [#75LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (17-9-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
2025-06-14: L vs. [#26LHW] Alonzo Menifield (17-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-28: W vs. [*] Da Woon Jung (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Oumar Sy | -208 | 64.49% | |
| Elo K170 | Oumar Sy | 1678.00 | +62.25 | 58.86% |
| Elo Modified | Oumar Sy | 1694.99 | +17.82 | 52.56% |
| Glicko-1 | Oumar Sy | 1746.16 | +13.20 | 51.90% |
| WHR | Oumar Sy | 1703.42 | +74.17 | 60.51% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ion Cutelaba 32.2, Oumar Sy 30.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ion Cutelaba 308, Oumar Sy 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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2026 WHR Post #4
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Lightweight (155)
[#3][#3UFC] Charles Oliveira (36-11-0, +179) vs. [#4][#4UFC] Max Holloway (27-8-0, -220)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #32 ranked Absolute fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #46 ranked Lightweight and #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (2-1-0)
2025-10-11: W vs. [#8LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:48 of round 2
2025-06-28: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:27 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#25LW] Michael Chandler (23-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-10-26: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3
2024-04-13: W vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (27-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Max Holloway | -220 | 65.73% | |
| Elo K170 | Max Holloway | 2341.64 | +59.15 | 58.43% |
| Elo Modified | Max Holloway | 2303.24 | +32.80 | 54.71% |
| Glicko-1 | Charles Oliveira | 2371.32 | +1.74 | 50.25% |
| WHR | Charles Oliveira | 2180.40 | +24.97 | 53.59% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Charles Oliveira 36.4, Max Holloway 34.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 147, Max Holloway 231
Previous Match-up Record: Max Holloway leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 7-3
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Middleweight (185)
[#11][#10UFC] Caio Borralho (17-2-0, -263) vs. [#15][#12UFC] Reinier de Ridder (21-3-0, +212)
Last 3 Fights: Caio Borralho (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (17-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#14MW] Jared Cannonier (18-9-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 49-45)
2024-05-04: W vs. [*] Paul Craig (17-10-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Reinier de Ridder (2-1-0)
2025-10-18: L vs. [#6MW] Brendan Allen (26-7-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2025-07-26: W vs. [#10MW] Robert Whittaker (26-9-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2025-05-03: W vs. [#32MW] Bo Nickal (8-1-0) via TKO (Knees) in 1:53 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Caio Borralho | -263 | 69.33% | |
| Elo K170 | Caio Borralho | 2036.09 | +46.58 | 56.66% |
| Elo Modified | Caio Borralho | 2015.27 | +55.88 | 57.97% |
| Glicko-1 | Caio Borralho | 2060.69 | +47.23 | 56.76% |
| WHR | Caio Borralho | 1954.98 | +56.84 | 58.11% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Caio Borralho 33.1, Reinier de Ridder 35.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Caio Borralho 182, Reinier de Ridder 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#16][#15UFC] Rob Font (22-9-0, +177) vs. [#84][#44UFC] Raul Rosas Jr. (11-1-0, -217)
Rob Font is the All-Time #35 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: L vs. [#12BW] David Martinez (14-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#33BW] Jean Matsumoto (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#24BW] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Raul Rosas Jr. (3-0-0)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#128BW] Vince Morales (16-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#103BW] Qileng Aori (28-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#749BW] Ricky Turcios (12-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:22 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Raul Rosas Jr. | -217 | 65.47% | |
| Elo K170 | Rob Font | 1848.51 | +158.70 | 71.37% |
| Elo Modified | Rob Font | 1792.99 | +113.68 | 65.80% |
| Glicko-1 | Rob Font | 1840.19 | +138.91 | 68.99% |
| WHR | Rob Font | 1727.18 | +117.07 | 66.24% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rob Font 38.7, Raul Rosas Jr. 21.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rob Font 175, Raul Rosas Jr. 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#5][#5UFC] Brandon Moreno (23-9-2, -257) vs. [#76][#33UFC] Loneer Kavanagh (9-1-0, +199)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (2-1-0)
2025-12-06: L vs. [#3FLY] Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 2
2025-03-29: W vs. [#11FLY] Steve Erceg (13-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#13FLY] Amir Albazi (17-3-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Loneer Kavanagh (2-1-0)
2025-08-23: L vs. [#30FLY] Charles Johnson (18-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:35 of round 2
2025-03-22: W vs. [#128FLY] Felipe dos Santos (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#57FLY] Jose Ochoa (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brandon Moreno | -257 | 68.28% | |
| Elo K170 | Brandon Moreno | 1892.17 | +333.88 | 87.24% |
| Elo Modified | Brandon Moreno | 1924.87 | +341.08 | 87.69% |
| Glicko-1 | Brandon Moreno | 2001.24 | +427.21 | 92.12% |
| WHR | Brandon Moreno | 1871.79 | +327.67 | 86.84% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Moreno 32.2, Loneer Kavanagh 26.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 84, Loneer Kavanagh 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#12][#11UFC] Marlon Vera (24-11-1, +212) vs. [#15][#14UFC] David Martinez (13-1-0, -268)
Marlon Vera is the All-Time #32 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (0-3-0)
2025-10-18: L vs. [#8BW] Aiemann Zahabi (14-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#9BW] Deiveson Figueiredo (25-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#10DD][#3BW] Sean OMalley (19-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
Last 3 Fights: David Martinez (3-0-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#16BW] Rob Font (22-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#1024FW] Saimon Oliveira (18-7-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 4:38 of round 1
2024-10-01: W vs. [#357FW] Xavier Franklin (6-1-1) via UD ()
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | David Martinez | -268 | 69.44% | |
| Elo K170 | Marlon Vera | 1853.42 | +34.81 | 54.99% |
| Elo Modified | Marlon Vera | 1910.59 | +64.77 | 59.21% |
| Glicko-1 | Marlon Vera | 1995.32 | +110.11 | 65.34% |
| WHR | Marlon Vera | 1808.38 | +32.47 | 54.66% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Marlon Vera 33.2, David Martinez 27.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Vera 133, David Martinez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#47][#27UFC] Bobby Green (33-17-1, +364) vs. [#95][#48UFC] Daniel Zellhuber (15-3-0, -510)
Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (1-2-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#202LW] Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#10LW] Mauricio Ruffy (13-2-0) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-07-27: L vs. [#9LW] Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Daniel Zellhuber (1-2-0)
2025-07-19: L vs. [#55LW] Michael Johnson (24-19-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#60LW] Esteban Ribovics (15-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#249WW] Francisco Prado (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Daniel Zellhuber | -510 | 79.50% | |
| Elo K170 | Bobby Green | 1738.10 | +131.40 | 68.06% |
| Elo Modified | Bobby Green | 1693.35 | +21.12 | 53.04% |
| Glicko-1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 1741.20 | +30.64 | 54.40% |
| WHR | Bobby Green | 1671.12 | +30.43 | 54.37% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bobby Green 39.5, Daniel Zellhuber 26.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 77, Daniel Zellhuber 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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2026 WHR Post #3
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Numbers are in the corner now. They watch every exchange, every takedown, every clinch. Predictive analytics — the use of historical and live fight performance data to forecast outcomes and reveal patterns — is moving from hobbyist projects into coaching rooms and broadcast desks. Fans, coaches and promoters pay attention. The landscape of MMA analytics is changing how fighters prepare, how matches are ranked, and how the sport is understood.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/mma/ufc/ufc-231-max-holloway-proves-hes-class/
Middleweight (185)
[#4][#4UFC] Sean Strickland (29-7-0, +228) vs. [#7][#7UFC] Anthony Hernandez (15-2-0, -283)
Sean Strickland is the All-Time #18 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Sean Strickland (1-2-0)
2025-02-08: L vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#9MW] Paulo Costa (15-4-0) via SD (49-46, 50-45, 46-49)
2024-01-20: L vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2MW] Dricus Du Plessis (23-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2025-08-09: W vs. [#16MW] Roman Dolidze (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:45 of round 4
2025-02-22: W vs. [#6MW] Brendan Allen (26-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-10-19: W vs. [#70MW] Michel Pereira (32-14-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:22 of round 5
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Anthony Hernandez | -283 | 70.78% | |
| Elo K170 | Anthony Hernandez | 2161.82 | +62.50 | 58.90% |
| Elo Modified | Anthony Hernandez | 2129.30 | +69.39 | 59.86% |
| Glicko-1 | Anthony Hernandez | 2228.09 | +90.54 | 62.74% |
| WHR | Anthony Hernandez | 2085.11 | +102.92 | 64.39% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sean Strickland 35.0, Anthony Hernandez 32.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean Strickland 378, Anthony Hernandez 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Hernandez leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#22][#19UFC] Geoff Neal (16-7-0, -195) vs. [#30][#25UFC] Uros Medic (12-3-0, +161)
Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (1-2-0)
2025-08-16: L vs. [#8WW] Carlos Prates (23-7-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 4:59 of round 1
2024-10-26: W vs. [*] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:30 of round 1
2024-02-17: L vs. [#5WW] Ian Garry (17-1-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Uros Medic (2-1-0)
2025-11-08: W vs. [#39WW] Muslim Salikhov (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:03 of round 1
2025-08-09: W vs. [#584WW] Gilbert Urbina (7-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:03 of round 1
2025-01-11: L vs. [#51WW] Punahele Soriano (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:31 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Geoff Neal | -195 | 63.30% | |
| Elo K170 | Geoff Neal | 1873.48 | +153.37 | 70.74% |
| Elo Modified | Geoff Neal | 1868.41 | +133.14 | 68.27% |
| Glicko-1 | Geoff Neal | 1946.47 | +154.43 | 70.87% |
| WHR | Geoff Neal | 1835.79 | +125.33 | 67.29% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Geoff Neal 35.5, Uros Medic 32.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Geoff Neal 189, Uros Medic 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#19][#14UFC] Dan Ige (19-10-0, +172) vs. [#24][#16UFC] Melquizael Costa (25-7-0, -212)
Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2025-07-19: L vs. [#10FW] Patricio Freire (37-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#41FW] Sean Woodson (13-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 3
2024-10-26: L vs. [#7FW] Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Melquizael Costa (3-0-0)
2025-12-13: W vs. [#67FW] Morgan Charriere (21-12-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:14 of round 1
2025-05-17: W vs. [#59FW] Julian Erosa (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-03-29: W vs. [#113FW] Christian Rodriguez (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Melquizael Costa | -212 | 64.89% | |
| Elo K170 | Melquizael Costa | 1945.24 | +142.84 | 69.47% |
| Elo Modified | Melquizael Costa | 1925.28 | +140.47 | 69.18% |
| Glicko-1 | Melquizael Costa | 1965.58 | +132.86 | 68.24% |
| WHR | Melquizael Costa | 1789.59 | +15.43 | 52.22% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dan Ige 34.5, Melquizael Costa 29.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Ige 217, Melquizael Costa 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Small tweaks on the “safe” bet amounts. I didn’t really think that one through.
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Bantamweight (135)
[#6][#6UFC] Mario Bautista (16-3-0, -206) vs. [#17][#16UFC] Vinicius Oliveira (24-3-0, +164)
Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#14BW] Patrick Mix (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-10-05: W vs. [*] Jose Aldo (32-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Vinicius Oliveira (3-0-0)
2025-07-19: W vs. [#24BW] Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-02-01: W vs. [#40BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#39BW] Ricky Simon (23-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mario Bautista | -206 | 63.99% | |
| Elo K170 | Mario Bautista | 2061.44 | +81.52 | 61.52% |
| Elo Modified | Mario Bautista | 2010.55 | +32.43 | 54.65% |
| Glicko-1 | Mario Bautista | 2046.24 | +20.44 | 52.94% |
| WHR | Mario Bautista | 1894.27 | +15.45 | 52.22% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mario Bautista 32.6, Vinicius Oliveira 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mario Bautista 105, Vinicius Oliveira 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#4][#4UFC] Kyoji Horiguchi (35-5-0, -351) vs. [*] Amir Albazi (17-2-0, +265)
Kyoji Horiguchi is the All-Time #18 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Amir Albazi is the All-Time #44 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Kyoji Horiguchi (3-0-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#14FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (18-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:18 of round 3
2024-12-31: W vs. [#112FLY] Nkazimulo Zulu (16-8-1) via UD ()
2024-06-09: W vs. [#11BW] Sergio Pettis (25-7-0) via UD ()
Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: L vs. [#5FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#8FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-12-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#133FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kyoji Horiguchi | -351 | 73.96% | |
| Elo K170 | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2131.83 | +322.80 | 86.51% |
| Elo Modified | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2091.75 | +319.43 | 86.28% |
| Glicko-1 | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2153.80 | +327.02 | 86.79% |
| WHR | Kyoji Horiguchi | 2063.39 | +361.86 | 88.92% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kyoji Horiguchi 35.3, Amir Albazi 32.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyoji Horiguchi 77, Amir Albazi 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#6][#5UFC] Jailton Almeida (22-4-0, -149) vs. [#23][#15UFC] Rizvan Kuniev (12-3-1, +122)
Jailton Almeida is the All-Time #48 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jailton Almeida (2-1-0)
2025-10-25: L vs. [#3HW+] Alexander Volkov (39-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-01-18: W vs. [#9HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 1
2024-06-01: W vs. [#18HW+] Alexander Romanov (20-4-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rizvan Kuniev (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2025-06-21: L vs. [#7HW+] Curtis Blaydes (19-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-08-20: W vs. [#195HW+] Hugo Cunha (8-3-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-04-07: NC vs. [#12HW+] Renan Ferreira (13-5-0)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jailton Almeida | -149 | 57.05% | |
| Elo K170 | Jailton Almeida | 1950.94 | +324.74 | 86.64% |
| Elo Modified | Jailton Almeida | 2021.91 | +316.10 | 86.05% |
| Glicko-1 | Jailton Almeida | 2131.64 | +331.45 | 87.08% |
| WHR | Jailton Almeida | 1989.07 | +170.11 | 72.70% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jailton Almeida 34.6, Rizvan Kuniev 33.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jailton Almeida 105, Rizvan Kuniev 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Back for 2026! There have been some tweaks (noted below by strikethroughs and blue text.)
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#11P4P][#1][#1UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0, -159) vs. [#3][#3UFC] Diego Lopes (27-7-0, +131)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Diego Lopes is the All-Time #32 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#3FW] Diego Lopes (27-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1P4P][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#12FW] Jean Silva (17-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2025-04-12: L vs. [#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#9FW] Brian Ortega (16-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alexander Volkanovski | -159 | 58.64% | |
| Elo K170 | Alexander Volkanovski | 2240.10 | +165.98 | 72.22% |
| Elo Modified | Alexander Volkanovski | 2213.98 | +156.81 | 71.15% |
| Glicko-1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 2255.57 | +116.07 | 66.11% |
| WHR | Alexander Volkanovski | 2182.54 | +161.54 | 71.71% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 37.3, Diego Lopes 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 294, Diego Lopes 140
Previous Match-up Record: Alexander Volkanovski leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#7][#6UFC] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0, -324) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Dan Hooker (24-13-0, +252)
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#13LW] Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2025-09-06: W vs. [#48LW] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-05-10: W vs. [#321LW] Kyle Prepolec (18-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:35 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2025-11-22: L vs. [#10DD][#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (23-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:34 of round 2
2024-08-17: W vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#27LW] Jalin Turner (15-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Benoit St. Denis | -324 | 72.89% | |
| Elo K170 | Benoit St. Denis | 2090.93 | +19.55 | 52.81% |
| Elo Modified | Benoit St. Denis | 2057.92 | +93.97 | 63.20% |
| Glicko-1 | Benoit St. Denis | 2163.12 | +208.22 | 76.83% |
| WHR | Benoit St. Denis | 1943.71 | +111.51 | 65.52% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 30.1, Dan Hooker 35.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 77, Dan Hooker 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#12][#10UFC] Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0, -115) vs. [#48][#26UFC] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0, -107)
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #49 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (1-2-0)
2025-06-21: W vs. [#26LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (27-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-03-08: W vs. [#49LW] Bobby Green (33-17-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#297WW] James Llontop (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Rafael Fiziev | -115 | 50.85% | |
| Elo K170 | Rafael Fiziev | 1980.59 | +229.53 | 78.94% |
| Elo Modified | Rafael Fiziev | 1956.18 | +204.16 | 76.41% |
| Glicko-1 | Rafael Fiziev | 2023.82 | +213.10 | 77.32% |
| WHR | Rafael Fiziev | 1947.27 | +192.29 | 75.15% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafael Fiziev 32.9, Mauricio Ruffy 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Fiziev 224, Mauricio Ruffy 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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