MMA Statistics – Page 3

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on January 29, 2026 by Jason

Back for 2026! There have been some tweaks (noted below by strikethroughs and blue text.)

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
~~Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.~~
Both fighters must have at least 7 fights in the prior 7 years, including 1+ loss. If the loss was in their debut, then 2+ losses are required.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 (01-31-2026)

Posted on January 26, 2026 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#11P4P][#1][#1UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0, -159) vs. [#3][#3UFC] Diego Lopes (27-7-0, +131)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.
Diego Lopes is the All-Time #32 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#3FW] Diego Lopes (27-7-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#2P4P][#9DD][#1LW] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1P4P][#1WW] Islam Makhachev (28-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (2-1-0)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#12FW] Jean Silva (17-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2025-04-12: L vs. [#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#9FW] Brian Ortega (16-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexander Volkanovski	-159		58.64%
Elo K170	Alexander Volkanovski	2240.10	+165.98	72.22%
Elo Modified	Alexander Volkanovski	2213.98	+156.81	71.15%
Glicko-1	Alexander Volkanovski	2255.57	+116.07	66.11%
WHR	Alexander Volkanovski	2182.54	+161.54	71.71%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 37.3, Diego Lopes 31.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 294, Diego Lopes 140
Previous Match-up Record: Alexander Volkanovski leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#7][#6UFC] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0, -324) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Dan Hooker (24-13-0, +252)
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#13LW] Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2025-09-06: W vs. [#48LW] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-05-10: W vs. [#321LW] Kyle Prepolec (18-10-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:35 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2025-11-22: L vs. [#10DD][#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (23-3-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:34 of round 2
2024-08-17: W vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#27LW] Jalin Turner (15-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Benoit St. Denis	-324		72.89%
Elo K170	Benoit St. Denis	2090.93	+19.55	52.81%
Elo Modified	Benoit St. Denis	2057.92	+93.97	63.20%
Glicko-1	Benoit St. Denis	2163.12	+208.22	76.83%
WHR	Benoit St. Denis	1943.71	+111.51	65.52%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Benoit St. Denis 30.1, Dan Hooker 35.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Benoit St. Denis 77, Dan Hooker 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#12][#10UFC] Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0, -115) vs. [#48][#26UFC] Mauricio Ruffy (12-2-0, -107)
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #49 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (1-2-0)
2025-06-21: W vs. [#26LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (27-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#9LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (2-1-0)
2025-09-06: L vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (16-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-03-08: W vs. [#49LW] Bobby Green (33-17-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1
2024-11-16: W vs. [#297WW] James Llontop (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Rafael Fiziev	-115		50.85%
Elo K170	Rafael Fiziev	1980.59	+229.53	78.94%
Elo Modified	Rafael Fiziev	1956.18	+204.16	76.41%
Glicko-1	Rafael Fiziev	2023.82	+213.10	77.32%
WHR	Rafael Fiziev	1947.27	+192.29	75.15%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafael Fiziev 32.9, Mauricio Ruffy 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Fiziev 224, Mauricio Ruffy 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (01-25-2026)

Posted on January 25, 2026 by Jason

Why Immediate Outcome Systems Are Influencing How Combat Sports Data Is Interpreted

Posted on January 21, 2026 by A. J. Riot

Combat sports analysis has moved far beyond post-fight recaps and static rankings. Professionals now evaluate performance through live indicators, momentum shifts, and evolving statistical context. This shift reflects broader changes in how information is consumed and trusted under pressure.

Audiences and analysts alike want clarity while events unfold, not only after outcomes are finalized. Delayed interpretation weakens relevance because fight dynamics change rapidly. Over time, this expectation reshaped how combat sports data platforms present value.

For decision-makers, analysts, and media professionals, this change is structural. Insight now depends on how quickly systems surface meaningful signals rather than how thoroughly they summarize finished events.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (01-24-2026)

Posted on January 19, 2026 by Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#5][#5UFC] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0, +191) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Paddy Pimblett (23-3-0, -235)
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #9 ranked Lightweight and #49 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#12LW] Rafael Fiziev (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4LW] Max Holloway (27-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-07-29: W vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2025-04-12: W vs. [#25LW] Michael Chandler (23-10-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:07 of round 3
2024-07-27: W vs. [#49LW] Bobby Green (33-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2023-12-16: W vs. [*] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Paddy Pimblett	-235		67.12%
Elo K170	Justin Gaethje	2286.80	+188.51	74.75%
Elo Modified	Justin Gaethje	2234.53	+168.55	72.52%
Glicko-1	Justin Gaethje	2284.76	+131.23	68.04%
WHR	Paddy Pimblett	2025.84	+0.07	50.01%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Justin Gaethje 37.2, Paddy Pimblett 31.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 322, Paddy Pimblett 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#3][#3UFC] Sean OMalley (18-3-0, -206) vs. [#6][#6UFC] Yadong Song (22-9-1, +168)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Yadong Song is the All-Time #50 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (1-2-0)
2025-06-07: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via Submission (North-South Choke) in 4:42 of round 3
2024-09-14: L vs. [#3DD][#7P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#12BW] Marlon Vera (24-11-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (2-1-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [*] Henry Cejudo (16-6-0) via TUD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#1DD][#4P4P][#1BW] Petr Yan (20-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#37BW] Chris Gutierrez (22-7-2) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean OMalley	-206		64.34%
Elo K170	Sean OMalley	2094.90	+55.55	57.93%
Elo Modified	Sean OMalley	2059.31	+30.67	54.40%
Glicko-1	Sean OMalley	2115.11	+23.44	53.37%
WHR	Sean OMalley	1949.75	+35.98	55.16%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sean OMalley 31.2, Yadong Song 28.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 231, Yadong Song 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Sean OMalley leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#8][#7UFC] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (16-2-0, -340) vs. [#13][#10UFC] Derrick Lewis (29-12-0, +260)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #28 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (2-1-0)
2025-11-22: W vs. [#23HW+] Shamil Gaziev (14-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:22 of round 1
2025-11-01: W vs. [#16HW+] Ante Delija (26-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:59 of round 1
2025-08-23: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (20-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2025-07-12: W vs. [#83HW+] Tallison Teixeira (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:35 of round 1
2024-05-11: W vs. [#26HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3
2023-11-04: L vs. [#6HW+] Jailton Almeida (22-4-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	-340		73.55%
Elo K170	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	1969.65	+104.60	64.62%
Elo Modified	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	1969.93	+115.38	66.02%
Glicko-1	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	2042.19	+104.30	64.57%
WHR	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	1888.33	+89.51	62.61%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 34.3, Derrick Lewis 40.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 63, Derrick Lewis 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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2025 WHR Betting Wrap-Up

Posted on January 18, 2026 by Jason

Final stats from the WHR betting posts for 2025…

We made 44 weekly WHR posts in 2025.
The “Underdog” parlays turned a profit of $1,524.01, hitting on 11 of 39.
The “Safe” parlays turned a profit of $394.12, hitting on 24 of 35.
Expectations were that we’d hit at a higher rate, especially on the dogs (expected 44.7% vs. 28.2%).

I’d have to analyze, but it feels like there are two areas for potential improvement:

Improve hit rate – Stricter guidelines on past fighter experience and/or eliminating some or all of the regional promotions.
Increase profit – Scaling the bet amount based on the perceived certainty of beating the odds.

We can never objectively beat the gamblers on properly handling fighters with previous non-MMA combat experience. This got us a couple of times in the past… Any ideas for handling this objectively?

The series will return either this week or next, assuming there are qualifying bets!

Momentum vs Statistics: What Really Decides a Fight?

Posted on January 8, 2026 by A. J. Riot

Predicting the result of a professional fight is never as simple as comparing records on paper. Some fans believe that a competitor riding a wave of recent victories has a natural advantage, while others trust detailed performance numbers collected over many years. The truth is that both momentum and statistics influence outcomes in different ways, and understanding how they interact gives a clearer view of what really decides a contest.

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Biggest Men’s Pro MMA Upsets of All-Time

Posted on January 7, 2026 by Jason

And now for the men’s biggest upsets of all-time. In case you missed the guidelines or the women’s list, click here!

The Upsets

#5 – (2268pts) [1-2-0] Tristan Yunker W(SUB) [18-3-0] Clay Guida
KOTC – Redemption on the River (February 17, 2006)

I remember this fight being one of the first big upsets that I noticed when Fight Matrix came online. I thought it was some kind of data error. We all know who Clay Guida is, while Yunker himself had a decent career, going 11-5 before the wheels came off and he started fighting bigger, well known opposition like Hector Lombard.

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Biggest Women’s Pro MMA Upsets of All-Time

Posted on January 6, 2026 by Jason

While completing our MMA Awards post for 2025, I started to wonder what the biggest upsets of all-time were. We have four different upset awards, each using different rules and/or rating systems.

In this post, we will consider all pro fights with only one exception — the winner must have a pro loss prior to the fight date. I will however, post some notable fights that would’ve otherwise qualified.

To determine the order, we will use ratings from the Elo and Glicko systems, total the pre-fight ratings for each fighter, then order by the difference.

Prepare to read about some fighters you’ve probably never heard of…

Upsets

#5 – (1497pts) [3-4-0] Shana Dobson W(TKO) [9-1-0] Mariya Agapova
UFC on ESPN 15 (September 22, 2020)

I’m a little surprised that a UFC fight made the cut, especially in the women’s list. As far as the outcome, ESPN referred to it as a “historic upset”. From what I recall, Agapova came into the UFC with a ton of hype and a pretty nice 9-1 record. Dobson, at around +850, derailed the hype train.

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The 2025 Fight Matrix MMA Awards

Posted on January 2, 2026 by Jason

Our awards are very similar to those given by other outlets, but for more specifics, see the MMA Awards page.

Men’s Fighter of the Year

This year was a strange one for the category. Merab Dvalishvili fought four times, and was in the lead for essentially the entire year before ending it with a loss against Petr Yan. His only competition for the award was Islam Makhachev, who wrote his name in the history books by becoming a “champ-champ”, but was only half as active as Merab. I’ve said many times that I’d rather more draws be awarded than watch judges score fights for the wrong guys. And for that very reason, Merab and Islam will share the award for 2025.

Winner [tie] – Merab Dvalishvili, Islam Makhachev

3rd Place – Joshua Van

Honorable Mention – Petr Yan

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How Predictive Analytics Is Changing UFC Betting in 2026

Posted on December 17, 2025 by A. J. Riot

Predictive analytics has reshaped nearly every major sport, and in 2026, few arenas feel its impact more than UFC betting. What once relied heavily on intuition, fighter popularity, and highlight reels has evolved into a data-driven battleground where probability models, performance metrics, and machine-learning forecasts play a decisive role. Bettors today no longer ask simply who looks stronger – they analyze striking trends, pace efficiency, control time, and thousands of historical matchups to identify hidden value. As the UFC continues to embrace advanced analytics in athlete preparation and matchmaking, the betting world is undergoing its own revolution. This article explores how predictive analytics is transforming UFC wagering in 2026, reshaping strategies, odds-making, and the very way fans understand the sport.

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (12-14-2025)

Posted on December 14, 2025 by Jason

UPDATE: Rankings updated again at approx 4:15PM EST to resolve data issues affecting some draws.

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on December 11, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape (12-13-2025)

Posted on December 8, 2025 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#5][#5UFC] Brandon Royval (17-8-0, +239) vs. [#9][#8UFC] Manel Kape (21-7-0, -297)
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #13 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Manel Kape is the All-Time #28 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (2-1-0)
2025-06-28: L vs. [#2DD][#5P4P][#1FLY] Joshua Van (16-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#3FLY] Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#6FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)

Last 3 Fights: Manel Kape (2-1-0)
2025-03-01: W vs. [#13FLY] Asu Almabayev (23-3-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 2:16 of round 3
2024-12-14: W vs. [#28FLY] Bruno Silva (15-8-2) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 1:57 of round 3
2024-07-27: L vs. [#8FLY] Muhammad Mokaev (16-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Manel Kape	-297		71.71%
Elo K170	Manel Kape	1920.99	+5.59	50.81%
Elo Modified	Manel Kape	1902.81	+105.83	64.78%
Glicko-1	Manel Kape	1972.63	+131.12	68.02%
WHR	Manel Kape	1898.38	+159.14	71.42%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Royval 33.3, Manel Kape 32.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Royval 168, Manel Kape 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Royval leads 1-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#26][#17UFC] Giga Chikadze (15-5-0, +213) vs. [#68][#37UFC] Kevin Vallejos (16-1-0, -265)

Last 3 Fights: Giga Chikadze (1-2-0)
2025-04-26: L vs. [#25FW] David Onama (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-07-27: L vs. [*] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Vallejos (3-0-0)
2025-08-02: W vs. [#145FW] Danny Silva (10-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2025-03-15: W vs. [#184FW] Seung Woo Choi (11-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
2024-09-24: W vs. [#573FW] Cam Teague (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kevin Vallejos	-265		69.44%
Elo K170	Giga Chikadze	1744.52	+26.05	53.74%
Elo Modified	Giga Chikadze	1743.26	+20.24	52.91%
Glicko-1	Giga Chikadze	1794.55	+27.02	53.88%
WHR	Kevin Vallejos	1697.52	+7.93	51.14%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Giga Chikadze 37.3, Kevin Vallejos 24.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Giga Chikadze 231, Kevin Vallejos 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#61][#38UFC] Cesar Almeida (7-1-0, +143) vs. [#66] Cezary Oleksiejczuk (16-3-0, -173)

Last 3 Fights: Cesar Almeida (2-1-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#111MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:16 of round 1
2024-10-05: W vs. [#112MW] Ihor Potieria (25-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#26MW] Roman Kopylov (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Cezary Oleksiejczuk (3-0-0)
2025-09-02: W vs. [#238MW] Theo Haig (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 1
2025-02-15: W vs. [#76LHW] Tom Breese (20-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2024-10-26: W vs. [#271MW] Piotr Strus (16-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 3:33 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	-173		60.62%
Elo K170	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	1805.34	+202.50	76.24%
Elo Modified	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	1824.67	+145.71	69.82%
Glicko-1	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	1914.28	+188.01	74.69%
WHR	Cezary Oleksiejczuk	1789.25	+39.26	55.63%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Cesar Almeida 37.7, Cezary Oleksiejczuk 25.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cesar Almeida 336, Cezary Oleksiejczuk 102
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on December 4, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays still in the green!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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