Leland Roling of MMA-Analyst posted some strength of schedule statistics on BloodyElbow. He went two layers deep, and included the winning percentage of fighters’ opponents, as well as the opponents’ opponents.
Although his efforts were more than noteworthy, after taking a closer look, I felt the combination of the two layers was a bit subjective in nature. Furthermore, the statistics included the entire careers of all fighters involved, which I felt was overkill.
Update: Posted a Top 50 list.
Lightweights
1. 
Jason Dent beat UR. Rob Browning
Welterweights
9B. Frank Lester* beat UR. Kiel Reid
* – Added after the fact. Assigned a “B” in order to signify their place in the ranking, without “throwing off” the initial 1-16 list.
So far, the higher seed is 11-4. In one bout, both fighters were unranked.
| Friday, April 4th 2025: Invicta FC 61: Ferreira vs. Palacios | |||
 [#2 W105] Elisandra Ferreira de Oliveira |  [#7 W105] Ana Palacios | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/20/2024 [Invicta FC] Last Opponent: [#5 W105] Andressa Romero Last 5: L W W W W | Last Fight Date: 12/13/2024 [Invicta FC] Last Opponent: [NR] Monique Adriane Last 5: L L W W W | ||
| Saturday, March 29th 2025: RIZIN 50 | |||
 [#3 SW] Haruo Ochi | [#12 SW] Nobuyoshi Nakatsukasa | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/08/2024 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Rikito Tago Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 9/16/2024 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Rikito Tago Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Sunday, March 23rd 2025: Deep - Jewels 48 | |||
| [#3 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki | [#12 W105] Moeri Suda | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/17/2024 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [NR] Yu Ri Shim Last 5: L L W L W | Last Fight Date: 12/22/2024 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Akari Kamise Last 5: W W L W W | ||
| [#5 LW] |  Justin Gaethje | [#1 LHW] |  Magomed Ankalaev | |
| [#13 W135] |  Nora Cornolle | [#4 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev | |
| [#2 LHW] | Alex Pereira | [NR] |  Conor McGregor | |
| [#1 HW] | Jon Jones | [#44 FLW] | Rei Tsuruya | |
| [#1 LW] | Islam Makhachev | [#18 LW] | Ignacio Bahamondes |
We posted the original last June, and you can find the link at the bottom of this post. Since then, we’ve had more bouts occur, we’ve improved the formulas, and added quite a bit of data,.
The significance of the upsets on this list is measured not by the betting odds, but by the difference in the Fightmatrix.com point standing between the two fighters, normalized by division. The list is ranked on total difference, not proportional difference, so newer results tend to take precedence, as there is a growing gap between the top notch fighters, and the bottom of the barrel.
UFC Middleweight Championship
[#1] Anderson Silva vs. [#11] Thales Leites
Light Heavyweight
[#9] Mauricio Rua vs. [#10] Chuck Liddell
Light Heavyweight
[#34] Krzysztof Soszynski vs. [#90] Brian Stann
Heavyweight
[#9] Cheick Kongo vs. [#35] Antoni Hardonk
Light Heavyweight
[#12] Luiz Cane vs. [#37] Steve Cantwell
Light Heavyweight
[#350] Eliot Marshall vs. [*] Vinny Magalhaes
Middleweight
[#30] Denis Kang vs. [#43] Xavier Foupa-Pokam
Middleweight
[#29] Jason MacDonald vs. [#62] Nate Quarry
Middleweight
[#34] David Loiseau vs. [#47] Ed Herman
Lightweight
[#59] Mark Bocek vs. [#92] David Bielkheden
Welterweight
[#28] TJ Grant vs. [#36] Ryo Chonan
Lightweight
[#53] Matt Wiman vs. [#60] Sam Stout
Ranking Notes: Dark green font represents an approximate ranking. An asterisk represents a fighter who is ranked, but too low for an approximation. These two scenarios will clear up slightly as we move forward. “NR” means the fighter is not ranked, due to inactivity, or due to a rating that is at or below the default starter rating.
Fightmatrix.com Mixed Martial Arts Rankings Archive has been updated with the rankings as of April 6, 2009.
Notable Info
Only one upset in Episode 2, and it was a minor one (#3 beat #2).
Lightweights
6. Richie Whitson beat 8. Paul Bird
7. Santino Defranco beat 9. Waylon Lowe
12. Cameron Dollar beat 15. Tom Hayden
Welterweights
3. Mark Miller beat 2. Kevin Knabjian
4. Jason Pierce beat 12. Ryan Biglar
5. Damarques Johnson beat 7. Ray Elbe
So far, the higher seed is 9-4. In one bout, both fighters were unranked.
It’s been long overdue, but we finally have a Facebook page!
Since we posted the TUF 9 rankings, I figured it’d be interesting to follow the results… just to see how off (or on) we are. There have definitely been some “bracket busters” in the Welterweight division, but the Lightweights are performing as expected.
Lightweights
4. 
Andre Winner beat 13. Gary Kelly
2. Jeff Lawson beat 14. James Bryant
10. Martin Stapleton beat NR. Dan James
3. Ross Pearson beat 11. AJ Wenn
Welterweights
8. James Wilks beat 1. Che Mills
10. Nicholas Osipczak beat 6. Tommy Maguire
11. Dean Amasinger beat 9. Alex Reid
NR. David Falkner beat NR. James Bateman
All fighters are ranked using their FightMatrix rating points as of 4/6/09. Some of the bout histories for these obscure fighters are incomplete, especially those from the UK, but we decided to use the information that we have to provide a ranking of said fighters. There is some “grouping” of closely rated fighters, so we are presenting them in tiers.
Total Points
240 – 204
The Best of the Bunch
1. Jason Dent
2. Jeff Lawson
Worth Keeping an Eye On
3. Ross Pearson
4. Andre Winner
The Next Three
5. Josh Souder
6. Richie Whitson
7. Santino Defranco
On the Outside Looking In
8. Paul Bird
9. Waylon Lowe
10. Martin Stapleton
11. AJ Wenn
12. Cameron Dollar
Just Good Enough for a Rating
13. Gary Kelly
14. James Bryant
15. Tom Hayden
The Unranked
Dan James, Rob Browning*
* – Added after the fact, not included in main point total.
All fighters are ranked using their FightMatrix rating points as of 4/6/09. Some of the bout histories for these obscure fighters are incomplete, especially those from the UK, but we decided to use the information that we have to provide a ranking of said fighters. There is some “grouping” of closely rated fighters, so we are presenting them in tiers.
Total Points
235 – 172
The Best of the Bunch
1. Che Mills
2. Kevin Knabjian
3. Mark Miller
Worth Keeping an Eye On
4. Jason Pierce
5. Damarques Johnson
Rounding Out the Top 10
6. Tommy Maguire
7. Ray Elbe
8. James Wilks
9. Alex Reid
9B. Frank Lester*
10. Nicholas Osipczak
Here for the Ride
11. Dean Amasinger
12. Ryan Biglar
13. Christian Fulgium
The Unranked
Kiel Reid, David Falkner, James Bateman
* – Added after the fact, not included in main point total.
WEC 40 took place in Chicago, IL – the hometown of the reigning WEC bantamweight champion Miguel Torres, who was set to defend his title against Brian Bowles in the main event. When Bowles pulled out of the fight with an injury, he was replaced by one of Japan’s premier 135 lbs fighters – Takeya Mizugaki.
Raphael Assuncao vs. Jameel Massouh (145 lbs)
Round 1: Assuncao slips in an early exchange but Massouh fails to capitalize. Assuncao takes the upper hand in standup, knocking down Massouh with a punch. Assuncao follows Massouh to the ground and works strikes from the top. Massouh has an active guard and attempts several submissions; Assuncao stays out of danger and eventually the fighters get back to their feet. Assuncao lands a solid combination then grabs a guillotine as the round draws to a close. Round 10-9 Assuncao
Round 2: Mostly standup action in this round, with Assuncao clearly dominating. Massouh attempts a takedown but has no luck bringing the fight to the ground. Massouh throws a high kick and slips, ending up on his back with Assuncao working from half-guard to finish the round. Round 10-9 Assuncao
Round 3: Massouh comes out aggressively, likely knowing that he needs to finish his opponent to win this fight. Massouh is once again losing the standup battle and pulls guard. Assuncao passes Jameel’s guard and gains full mount, but Massouh reverses and ends up on top. After a struggle Assuncao sweeps Massouh; Jameel attempts submissions but is unable to do much off his back. Round 10-9 Assuncao
Raphael Assuncao takes a unanimous decision with scores of 30-27 from all three judges.
Fight Grade: 4/5
UFC Fight Night 18 took place in Nashville, Tenn. and kicked off the ninth season of ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ reality show. The card was headlined by the UFC debut of the WEC welterweight champion Carlos Condit, taking on Martin Kampmann in the main event.
Cole Miller vs. Junie Browning (155 lbs)
After a brief striking exchange, Browning shoots for a takedown. The fighters end up back on their feet after a scramble, then Miller latches on to a guillotine and pulls guard. Browning quickly taps out.
Fight Grade: 3/5
Aftermath: In the post-fight interview, Miller called out the winner of the upcoming bout between Spencer Fisher and Caol Uno. This will be a big step-up in competition for Cole. Junie Browning will likely be relegated to the untelevised undercard in his next outing.
