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Fight Matrix

Recommended YouTube Viewing: “In the Car – UFC on Fox 8 Main Card Breakdown”

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Jason

One of our viewers, Bryan Stone has been using our rankings to preview upcoming UFC events. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (07-27-2013)

Posted on July 24, 2013 by Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#9DD] Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1, -438) vs. [#5] John Moraga (13-1-0, +389)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#6FLY] John Dodson (14-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2FLY/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (18-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#8FLY] Ian McCall (11-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: John Moraga (3-0-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#26FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:11 of round 3
2012-08-04: W vs. [#72FLY] Ulysses Gomez (9-4-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#763BW] Jose Carbajal (5-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 182, John Moraga 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#3] Jake Ellenberger (29-6-0, +206) vs. [#10] Rory MacDonald (14-1-0, -225)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#20WW] Nate Marquardt (32-12-2) via KO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 1
2012-10-05: W vs. [#34WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#6WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#23WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#89WW] Che Mills (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#13WW] Mike Pyle (25-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 133, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#11] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0, -265) vs. [#152] Bobby Voelker (24-9-0, +246)

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#17WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2012-07-14: L vs. [#25MW] Lorenz Larkin (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#45WW] Adlan Amagov (12-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Voelker (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [#46WW] Patrick Cote (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:16 of round 2
2010-10-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:58 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 154, Bobby Voelker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Saturday, August 22nd 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira
 [#1 W145] Cristiane Justino [#4 W135] Ketlen Vieira
Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Sara Collins
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 5/16/2026 [UFC]
Last Opponent: [#10 W135] Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Last 5: W L W L W
Saturday, July 18th 2026: RIZIN LANDMARK 15 in HIROSHIMA
 [#3 W105] Si Woo Park [#7 W105] Moeri Suda
Last Fight Date: 11/23/2025 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#34 W105] Saki Kitamura
Last 5: W W W L W
Last Fight Date: 3/07/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#16 W105] Namiko Kawabata
Last 5: W W W L W
Saturday, July 18th 2026: RIZIN LANDMARK 15 in HIROSHIMA
 [#5 W105] Saori Oshima [#13 W105] Ye Ji Lee
Last Fight Date: 3/07/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#11 W105] Keito Oyama
Last 5: L L W L W
Last Fight Date: 5/24/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#32 W105] Eru Takebayashi
Last 5: W L W L W
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Featured Fighters

[#75 BW]  Aleksandre Topuria [#2 MW]  Khamzat Chimaev
[#5 LW]  Max Holloway [NR]  Conor McGregor
[#1 WW]  Islam Makhachev [#25 MW]  Sharabutdin Magomedov
[#1 LW]  Justin Gaethje [NR]  Dustin Poirier
[#2 LW]  Ilia Topuria [#47 LHW]  Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-23-2013)

Posted on July 23, 2013 by Jason

Notable Info

  • This is an intermediate update for testing purposes.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-21-2013)

Posted on July 21, 2013 by Jason
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Upcoming Division Dominance Change

Posted on July 18, 2013 by Jason

With the next rankings update, we will be making a slight tweak to our division dominance routine that will observe interference caused by division jumpers and help situations in which fighters gain most of their points in a strong division, then move to a weaker division — most recently seen at Women’s Featherweight with Marloes Coenen.

Hopefully, this will edge the methodology just a bit closer to a traditional “pound-for-pound” ranking, but it will remain unique in nature.  Due to the strength of Men’s MMA across the board, this will have very little effect.  However, the Women’s list will be moderately affected by this alteration.

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Undefeated Winners’ Performance in Immediate Rematch / Winners’ Performance after KO

Posted on July 15, 2013 by Jason

I had every intent to create a blog entry, detailing the performance of undefeated winners in an immediate rematch.

However, in known professional MMA history, Chris Weidman will be the first undefeated fighter to give his opponent (Anderson Silva) an immediate rematch after winning the first match — unless it is beaten by a bout scheduled to take place prior to the rematch.

On another note, I found 303 immediate rematches in which the original fighter won by KO or TKO.  In the rematches, the original winner was 191-105-5 (2 NC) — a win % of 63.5% (excluding the no contests).

  • Narrowing the target down to known Middleweight contests w/ an original finish of TKO or TKO, the original winner was 7-6-1 (50%)
  • Narrowing the target down to round 2 finishes KOs and TKOs, the original winner was 43-19-2 (67.2%).
  • Getting ultra-specific, there is only one known immediate rematch in which the original match took place at Middleweight with a round 2 KO/TKO finish, and the original winner (Roman Dosenko) lost.
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MMA Rankings Updated (07-14-2013)

Posted on July 14, 2013 by Jason

Fight Matrix Program: InvictaFC 6 (07-13-2013)

Posted on July 13, 2013 by Jason

Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0, 145.0lb, +650) vs. [#2] Cristiane Justino (11-1-0, 144.9lb, -675)
Marloes Coenen is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marloes Coenen (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-04-28: W vs. [#7FW] Romy Ruyssen (5-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2011-07-30: L vs. [#6BW] Miesha Tate (13-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#8FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marloes Coenen 194, Cristiane Justino 99
Previous Match-up Record: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marloes Coenen leads 4-2
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#2/#5DD] Ayaka Hamasaki (9-0-0, 115.3lb, +144) vs. [#8] Claudia Gadelha (10-0-0, 114.5lb, -140)
Ayaka Hamasaki is the All-Time #19 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ayaka Hamasaki (3-0-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#12SW] Emi Fujino (12-6-0) via UD ()
2012-07-28: W vs. [#9AW] Lacey Schuckman (9-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 3
2012-05-26: W vs. [#15SW] Yuka Tsuji (24-3-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:41 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Claudia Gadelha (3-0-0)
2013-05-11: W vs. [#41SW] Herica Tiburcio (5-2-0) via UD ()
2012-09-21: W vs. [#54FLY] Adriana Vieira (1-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1
2012-04-20: W vs. [#31BW] Valerie Letourneau (4-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ayaka Hamasaki 210, Claudia Gadelha 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#9] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0, 134.8lb, -145) vs. [#11] Lauren Taylor (6-0-0, 134.8lb, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Sarah DAlelio (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#19BW] Amanda Nunes (7-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2012-10-06: L vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:37 of round 2
2012-07-28: W vs. [#3FLY] Vanessa Porto (15-6-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Lauren Taylor (3-0-0)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#25BW] Kaitlin Young (7-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-03-01: W vs. [NA] Jennifer Scott (2-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:10 of round 1
2011-10-28: W vs. [NA] Julia Griffin (2-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sarah DAlelio 189, Lauren Taylor 99
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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MMA Rankings Updated (07-07-2013)

Posted on July 7, 2013 by Jason

UFC 162: Ratings vs. Odds (07-06-2013)

Posted on July 5, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

  1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
  2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
  3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
  4. Notable home advantage.
  5. System inability to project style differences.
  6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight Odds Favorite Rating Favorite I’d bet on “Gotchas”
Pierce vs. Mitchell Pierce (-643 / Very Large) Pierce (4.26x / Massive) Pierce
Baczynski vs. Melancon Baczynski (-293 / Moderate) Baczynski (3.30x / Very Large) Baczynski #2
Barboza vs. Oliveira Barboza (-586 / Very Large) Barboza (1.45x / Small) PASS #2
Gonzaga vs. Herman Gonzaga (-243 / Moderate) Gonzaga (2.24x / Large) Gonzaga
Parke vs. Tokudome Parke (-199 / Moderate) Tokudome (1.02x / Pick ‘Em) Tokudome
Craig vs. Leben Craig (-152 / Small) Leben (1.07x / Pick ‘Em) Leben
Swanson vs. Siver Swanson (-234 / Moderate) Siver (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) Siver
Munoz vs. Boetsch Munoz (-128 / Very Small) Boetsch (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) Boetsch
Gracie vs. Kennedy Kennedy (-149 / Small) Gracie (1.29x / Small) Gracie
Edgar vs. Oliveira Edgar (-580 / Very Large) Edgar (3.39x / Very Large) PASS
Silva vs. Weidman Silva (-244 / Moderate) Silva (2.54x / Large) PASS #3

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

 

Betting favorites to consider: Pierce, Baczynski, Gonzaga

Betting underdogs to consider:

  • Tokudome over Parke
  • Leben over Craig
  • Siver over Swanson
  • Boetsch over Munoz
  • Gracie over Kennedy

All of the above betting underdogs are simply cases where the rating system disagrees with the odds as to who is the favorite, but the separation is small on all of them — they are all nearly 50/50 fights per the ratings.

Happy Fourth of July!

Posted on July 5, 2013 by Oleg

Please excuse our recent technical difficulties – we’re in process of moving FightMatrix.com to a new home and there are a few hiccups along the way.

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 162 (07-06-2013)

Posted on July 5, 2013 by Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#2DD] Anderson Silva (33-4-0, -244) vs. [#3] Chris Weidman (9-0-0, +196)
Anderson Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Middleweight and #1 ranked Absolute fighter.
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #22 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anderson Silva (3-0-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [*] Stephan Bonnar (15-8-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:40 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#14LHW] Chael Sonnen (27-13-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2011-08-27: W vs. [#4MW] Yushin Okami (29-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (3-0-0)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#14MW] Mark Munoz (12-3-0) via KO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:37 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#4WW] Demian Maia (18-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#35MW] Tom Lawlor (9-5-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:07 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anderson Silva 266, Chris Weidman 360
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#2] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1, -580) vs. [#33] Charles Oliveira (16-3-0, +414)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #19 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (0-3-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-08-11: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (19-2-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (19-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#7FW] Cub Swanson (19-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:40 of round 1
2012-06-01: W vs. [#99FW] Jonathan Brookins (13-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#148LW] Eric Wisely (21-8-0) via Submission (Calf Slicer) in 1:43 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 154, Charles Oliveira 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Frankie Edgar leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#12] Roger Gracie (6-1-0, +122) vs. [#20] Tim Kennedy (15-4-0, -149)

Last 3 Fights: Roger Gracie (2-1-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#64MW] Anthony Smith (17-10-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2
2012-07-14: W vs. [#53MW] Keith Jardine (17-12-2) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2011-09-10: L vs. [#22LHW] Muhammed Lawal (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:33 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tim Kennedy (2-1-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#102MW] Trevor Smith (10-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:36 of round 3
2012-07-14: L vs. [#7MW] Luke Rockhold (10-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-07-30: W vs. [#11WW] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roger Gracie 175, Tim Kennedy 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
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MMA Rankings Updated (06-30-2013)

Posted on June 30, 2013 by Oleg

Basic Rules and Tips in Boxing Betting

Posted on June 27, 2013 by A. J. Riot

Boxing betting is one of the most widespread and followed in all of sports betting. Whether you are playing in a new live casinos or online casinos, you would often hear people talking about how they won a fortune with a gamble on their favorite boxer.

Before entering the boxing betting arena,here are the basic rules and tips that might help you survive among the crowd of seasoned gamblers.

Basic Boxing Betting Rules:

  1. For a boxing bout to be categorized as “action”, the fight must take place within the window period. Most casinos would list the date and give it one week. Online casinos give a larger window of up to a month. Otherwise, it will be graded as “no action”.
  2. Venue shifts within the country will not affect any wagers. However, if the boxing match is changed to an overseas location, “no action” on all pending wagers will be called.
  3. In case of “no contest” or “no decision”, all bets will be refunded. This can happen when changes on the details of the fight are made when betting has officially started. However, a change in title to a non-title match will not affect the betting game.
  4.  The result of betting will be depending only on the outcome on the date of the fight. Any disqualification or sanctions due to testing positive on prohibited drugs, incorrect scoring or granted appeals, will have no bearing on wagers.
  5. All bets will also be returned in case of a draw, when this result is not a betting option. Otherwise, all bets lose.
  6. If you bet on a TKO win, result of the fight should be any of the following: Technical Knockout, Knockout or Disqualification. The latter was considered a TKO for wagering or betting purposes.
  7. If you bet on number of rounds, the halfway mark is reached when clock ticks at 1:30 for men and 1:00 for women boxing matches
  8. If you bet on a fighter to win, the bet is also a winner if the fighter ends up winning by either a premature ending of the match or a decision following a full-scheduled bout.
  9. When the bell rings to signal the first round, the boxing match is deemed official for betting purposes.

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MMA Rankings Updated (06-23-2013)

Posted on June 23, 2013 by Jason

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Current MMA Rankings

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  • Heavyweight+
  • Light Heavyweight
  • Middleweight
  • Welterweight
  • Lightweight
  • Featherweight
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  • Flyweight
  • Strawweight
  • Women’s Pound for Pound
  • Women’s Division Point Dominance
  • Women’s Featherweight+
  • Women’s Bantamweight
  • Women’s Flyweight
  • Women’s Strawweight
  • Women’s Atomweight
  • Unknown Division

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