UFC TUF 17 Finale [Non-TUF Only] / Odds vs. Ratings (04-13-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Lawrence vs. Pineda | Pineda (-117 / Pick ‘Em) | Pineda (2.11x / Large) | Pineda | |
| Sicilia vs. Blanco | Blanco (-160 / Small) | Blanco (1.24x / Very Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Miller vs. Palaszewski | Palaszewski (-170 / Small) | Palaszewski (2.11x / Large) | Palaszewski | |
| Hester vs. Marunde | Hester (-161 / Small) | Marunde (2.02x / Large) | Marunde | |
| Browne vs. Gonzaga | Browne (-258 / Moderate) | Gonzaga (1.34x / Small) | Gonzaga | |
| Tate vs. Zingano | Zingano (-124 / Pick ‘Em) | Tate (1.57x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| Faber vs. Jorgensen | Faber (-464 / Large) | Faber (2.29x / Large) | PASS |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Pineda, Palaszewski
Underdogs to consider: Marunde, Gonzaga
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, July 18th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Austin: Van Steenis vs. Eblen 2 | |||
 [#6 MW] Costello Van Steenis |  [#12 MW] Johnny Eblen | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#16 MW] Fabian Edwards Last 5: L W W W W | Last Fight Date: 3/28/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#52 MW] Bryan Battle Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
| [#7 W125] Liz Carmouche |  [#13 W125] Viviane Araujo | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 8/15/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#16 W125] Jena Bishop Last 5: W L W W W | Last Fight Date: 4/11/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#61 W125] Shanna Young Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
| [#6 FW] A.J. McKee |  [#19 FW] Salamat Isbulaev | ||
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| |||
| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#27 FW] Adam Borics Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 2/07/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#23 FW] Jesus Pinedo Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#4 LW] | Justin Gaethje | [#1 WW] |  Islam Makhachev | |
| [#1 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#1 LHW] | Alex Pereira | |
| [#2 BW] | Merab Dvalishvili | [NR] |  Conor McGregor | |
| [#44 LHW] |  Iwo Baraniewski | [#174 WW] |  Marko Bojkovic | |
| [#36 LW] |  Tom Nolan | [#44 LW] |  Fares Ziam |
New Feature: Fight Outcomes By Year
A couple of years ago, we published a compilation of all UFC fight outcomes by year, from 1993 to 2010.
By popular request, we decided to make this a permanent feature. We created a page for UFC statistics, and another one for all MMA fights in our database. There are also some statistics on fight outcome percentages, and a breakdown of different decision types. So read on:
All MMA Fight Outcomes By Year
Thanks to Underground Forum (UG) members crazychris & D241 for the suggestion!
FightMatrix Program: TUF 17 Finale (04-13-2013)
Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Urijah Faber (27-6-0, -458) vs. [#27] Scott Jorgensen (14-6-0, +354)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #11 ranked Bantamweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.
Scott Jorgensen is the All-Time #18 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#59BW] Ivan Menjivar (25-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-11-19: W vs. [*] Brian Bowles (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:27 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Scott Jorgensen (1-2-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#211BW] John Albert (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2012-06-08: L vs. [#6BW] Eddie Wineland (20-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 2
2012-02-04: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 49, Scott Jorgensen 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Urijah Faber leads 4-2
.
Middleweight (185)
[#152] Uriah Hall (7-2-0, -357) vs. [NA] Kelvin Gastelum (5-0-0, +278)
Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (3-0-0)
2012-06-15: W vs. [#509MW] Nodar Kuduxashvili (5-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-02-10: W vs. [#661MW] Daniel Akinyemi (3-1-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 3:58 of round 1
2011-04-08: W vs. [#217MW] Aung La Nsang (13-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:37 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (3-0-0)
2012-07-20: W vs. [NA] Mike Ashford (3-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:57 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#778MW] Bill Smallwood (1-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 1
2011-10-22: W vs. [NA] Mike Gentile (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uriah Hall 302, Kelvin Gastelum 267
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Women Bantamweight (135)
[#2/#10DD] Miesha Tate (13-3-0, -102) vs. [#6] Cat Zingano (7-0-0, -125)
Miesha Tate is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Miesha Tate (2-1-0)
2012-08-18: W vs. [#17BW] Julie Kedzie (16-11-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:28 of round 3
2012-03-03: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD] Ronda Rousey (7-0-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1
2011-07-30: W vs. [#1FW/#2DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Cat Zingano (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#24BW] Raquel Pennington (3-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:32 of round 2
2011-05-14: W vs. [#10FLY] Takayo Hashi (14-4-0) via KO (Slam) in 4:42 of round 3
2010-12-10: W vs. [#22FLY] Carina Damm (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:37 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miesha Tate 238, Cat Zingano 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
The Ultimate Fighter 17 – Episode 12 Review & Season Recap
In Episode 12, the semi-finals took place. With the score tied between teams at 6 wins each, Team Sonnen took both wins, sending two teammates to face off in the finale as Kevin Gastelum choked out Josh Samman in the first round, and Uriah Hall stopped Dylan Andrews with ground-and-pound in the second.
Final win tally is Team Sonnen 8, Team Jones 6.
A recap of all the season’s fights after the break.
Keep Reading
FightMatrix Program: InvictaFC (04-05-2013)
Women Atomweight Championship (105)
[#1/#4DD] Jessica Penne (10-1-0, 104.9lb, -526) vs. [#7] Michelle Waterson (10-3-0, 104.7lb, +373)
Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#6AW] Naho Sugiyama (8-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:20 of round 2
2012-04-28: W vs. [#4AW] Lisa Ellis (15-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2010-11-19: W vs. [#23AW] Amy Davis (3-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#8AW] Lacey Schuckman (8-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-01-21: W vs. [#11AW] Diana Rael (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:12 of round 1
2010-04-24: W vs. [NA] Masako Yoshida (16-17-5) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Penne 181, Michelle Waterson 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Penne leads 1-0
.
Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#3/#9DD] Barb Honchak (7-2-0, 124.6lb, -132) vs. [#4] Vanessa Porto (15-5-0, 124.8lb, -102)
Last 3 Fights: Barb Honchak (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#19FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: W vs. [#33FLY] Bethany Marshall (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#25FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Porto (2-1-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#7FLY] Tara LaRosa (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: L vs. [#10BW] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [NA] Luana Teixeira (1-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:41 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Barb Honchak 181, Vanessa Porto 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Barb Honchak leads 1-0
.
Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Cristiane Justino (10-1-0, 144.8lb, -2585) vs. [#13] Fiona Muxlow (6-2-0, 143.8lb, +1343)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#10FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2
2010-01-30: W vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Fiona Muxlow (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-10-27: W vs. [NA] Leanne Reid (0-1-0) via UD ()
2011-06-25: W vs. [NA] Deney Hayward (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 475, Fiona Muxlow 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0
.
Keep Reading
UFC on FuelTV 9 / Odds vs. Ratings (04-06-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short notice scheduling.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Abedi vs. Yousef | Abedi (-139 / Very Small) | Abedi (1.59x / Moderate) | Abedi | |
| Lawlor vs. Kuiper | Lawlor (-184 / Moderate) | Lawlor (1.52x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Alloway vs. LaFlare | LaFlare (-192 / Moderate) | Alloway (1.41x / Small) | PASS | #3 |
| Brimage vs. McGregor | McGregor (-166 / Small) | McGregor (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #1 |
| Amagov vs. Spang | Amagov (-166 / Small) | Amagov (2.41x / Large) | Amagov | |
| Troeng vs. Cella | Troeng (-239 / Moderate) | Troeng (6.90x / Massive) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Johnson vs. Madadi | Johnson (-232 / Moderate) | Johnson (1.88x / Large) | PASS | #4 |
| Peralta vs. Corassani | Peralta (-357 / Large) | Peralta (3.55x / Massive) | Peralta | #4 |
| Brandao vs. Garza | Brandao (-212 / Moderate) | Garza (1.44x / Small) | Garza | |
| Pickett vs. Easton | Pickett (-160 / Small) | Pickett (1.43x / Small) | PASS | |
| Mitrione vs. De Fries | Mitrione (-328 / Large) | Mitrione (1.67x / Moderate) | De Fries | |
| Pearson vs. Couture | Pearson (-402 / Large) | Pearson (1.08x / Pick ‘Em) | Couture | |
| Mousasi vs. Latifi | Mousasi (-1190 / Massive) | Mousasi (2.58x / Large) | Latifi | #2, #4 |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Abedi, Amagov, Peralta
Underdogs to consider:
Latifi over Mousasi – A true shot in the dark, but -1190 is ridiculous territory and Latifi is actually a quality opponent.
De Fries over Mitrione – A very small bet, as we think De Fries is a slight bargain.
Couture over Pearson – Couture is a great bargain and although not favored by the ratings, Pearson is no world beater himself.
Garza over Brandao – All things considered, Garza looks like a decent bet here.
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 11 Review
In Episode 11, the remaining quarter-final matchups were again split between the teams:
Team Sonnen’s Uriah Hall knocked out ‘wild card’ Bubba McDaniel with a punch in the opening seconds of the very first round, while Team Jones’ Josh Samman forced a tapout from Jimmy Quinlan late in the first with ground-and-pound from back mount.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 6, Team Jones 6.
The semi-final matchups are set:
| Team Jones | Team Sonnen | |
| Dylan Andrews | vs | Uriah Hall |
| Josh Samman | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
Quick recap of all the season’s fights after the break.
Keep Reading
FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel TV 9 (04-06-2013)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Gegard Mousasi (33-3-2, -1190) vs. [#33] Ilir Latifi (7-2-0, +664)
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #16 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [*] Mike Kyle (19-9-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [#43LHW] Ovince St. Preux (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-16: W vs. [*] Hiroshi Izumi (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#141LHW] Jorge Oliveira (5-3-1) via UD ()
2012-05-26: W vs. [#39LHW] Tony Lopez (32-10-0) via UD ()
2012-03-23: W vs. [NA] Denis Bogdanov (0-4-0) via Submission (Keylock) in ? of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gegard Mousasi 84, Ilir Latifi 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gegard Mousasi leads 1-0
.
Lightweight (155)
[#44] Ross Pearson (14-6-0, -402) vs. [#53] Ryan Couture (6-1-0, +314)
Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#123LW] George Sotiropoulos (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 3
2012-06-22: L vs. [#6FW] Cub Swanson (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Junior Assuncao (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Ryan Couture (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#56LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#210LW] Joe Duarte (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#212LW] Conor Heun (9-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:52 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ross Pearson 112, Ryan Couture 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Heavyweight (265)
[#34] Matt Mitrione (5-2-0, -328) vs. [#75] Philip De Fries (9-2-0, +261)
Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (1-2-0)
2012-12-15: L vs. [#11HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2011-10-29: L vs. [#16HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#157HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Philip De Fries (1-2-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#29HW+] Todd Duffee (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1
2012-08-04: W vs. [#247HW+] Oli Thompson (10-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:16 of round 2
2012-02-15: L vs. [#22HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matt Mitrione 112, Philip De Fries 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 10 Review
In Episode 10, two of the quarter-final matchups took place, with each team taking home a win:
Team Jones’ Dylan Andrews stopped Luke Barnatt with strikes in the third (overtime) round, while in the battle of unranked fighters, Team Sonnen’s Kevin Gastelum disposed of Colin Hart in a wild striking exchange in the very first round.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 5, Team Jones 5.
Here’s who remains:
Ranking Filters Enhancements
We’ve enhanced our rankings by adding a couple of new filter features:
- Team Affiliation
- Age Range
- And for all you promoters and matchmakers out there, added ‘Not Scheduled’ to the Next Fight filter, to quickly view the ranked fighters with no known scheduled fights.
For example, you can now view all the heavyweights in the American Top Team camp:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/heavyweight-265-lbs/?TeamFilter=American+Top+Team
Or, all American welterweights who last fought outside of UFC and have no known scheduled bouts:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/welterweight/?OrgFilter=-1&NatFilter=US&OrgFilter2=0
Or all UFC lightweights under 30:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/lightweight/?OrgFilter=UFC&AgeToFilter=29
The possibilities & combinations are (nearly) limitless!
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 9 Review
In Episode 9, Team Jones evens the score in the wildcard bout. After winning the first round and losing the second, Kevin Casey failed to answer the bell for the tie-breaking third round. Bubba McDaniel is back in the competition, and the quarter-final matchups are announced:
| Team Jones | Team Sonnen | |
| Robert McDaniel | vs | Uriah Hall |
| Dylan Andrews | vs | Luke Barnatt |
| Josh Samman | vs | Jimmy Quinlan |
| Collin Hart | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 4.
A summary of the season’s fights so far after the break: