Gambling Analysis: UFC on Fuel TV 1
If you’re keeping count at home, I’m on a roll with our “gambling analysis” posts, picking 6-for-6 winners (1 other ending in a ‘no contest’) with near perfection on the outcome type and round.
In my honest opinion, the upcoming UFC: Fuel TV 1 card doesn’t provide many solid betting options and I feel like I’m forcing a pick this week. Overall, the matches are well constructed and this will usually lead to some unexpected outcomes.
Having said that, betting on MMA at TopBet can currently yield you odds of -140 with a pick of Dave Herman over Stefan Struve at the upcoming Fuel TV event. Though they are very closely ranked here at FightMatrix (Herman #24 / Struve #28), I think Struve is too big of a target and has too weak of a chin to stay standing. 15 of Herman’s 22 wins have come by (T)KO, and he should improve this rate with a late first round stoppage of Struve.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, March 14th 2026: Pancrase 361 | |||
 [#4 SW] Yuta Miyazawa | [#9 SW] Kanji Funada | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/09/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#32 SW] Tateo Iino Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 4/27/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#51 SW] Takafumi Ato Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Friday, March 20th 2026: PFL Madrid: Van Steenis vs. Edwards 2 | |||
 [#8 MW] Costello Van Steenis |  [#12 MW] Fabian Edwards | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 7/19/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#13 MW] Johnny Eblen Last 5: W L W W W | Last Fight Date: 8/21/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#27 MW] Dalton Rosta Last 5: W L W W W | ||
| Sunday, April 12th 2026: RIZIN LANDMARK 13 in FUKUOKA | |||
 [#25 W115] Natalia Kuziutina | [#7 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 8/16/2025 [Ural Fighting Championship] Last Opponent: [#77 W115] Rose Conceicao Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 11/23/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#14 W105] Ye Ji Lee Last 5: W L W L W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#242 LW] |  Rustambek Nurzhanov | [#2 LW] |  Charles Oliveira | |
| [#18 FW] | Kyoma Akimoto | [#840 LW] | Daniel Holt | |
| [#5 LW] |  Max Holloway | [#1 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | |
| [NR] | Markwayne Mullin | [#43 LW] | Drew Dober | |
| [#22 MW] | Brunno Ferreira | [#46 FW] | Patrick Mix |
All-Time MMA Rankings Updated: 2/3/2012
Notable Info
- With Jose Aldo’s latest victory, he takes a big leap from #21 to #16 in the Absolute rankings. He is also much closer to taking the #1 spot at Featherweight.
- Chael Sonnen’s latest victory inches him past Paulo Filho to enter the Top 5 All-Time Middleweight list.
- Ben Henderson finally breaks into the Top 25 at Lightweight, filling the last position on the list.
- Megumi Fujii moves past Tara LaRosa and Yuka Tsuji, to claim the #1 Women’s position. Fujii’s continued elite position coupled with LaRosa’s lack of tough opposition caused this shift, though the three are still very close.
FightMatrix Program: UFC 143 (02-04-2012)
Welterweight Championship (170)
[#2] Nick Diaz (26-7-0) vs. [#8] Carlos Condit (27-5-0)
Nick Diaz is the All-Time #9 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #14 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Nick Diaz (3-0-0)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#6WW] BJ Penn (16-8-2) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#22WW] Paul Daley (29-11-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 1
2011-01-29: W vs. [#56WW] Evangelista Santos (18-15-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:50 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (3-0-0)
2011-07-02: W vs. [#28WW] Dong Hyun Kim (15-1-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2010-10-16: W vs. [#44WW] Dan Hardy (23-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:27 of round 1
2010-06-12: W vs. [#12WW] Rory MacDonald (12-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nick Diaz 98, Carlos Condit 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1) vs. [#17] Roy Nelson (16-6-0)
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #14 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (2-1-0)
2011-06-18: L vs. [#2HW+/#8DD] Alistair Overeem (36-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2010-06-26: W vs. [#12HW+] Fedor Emelianenko (33-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:09 of round 1
2009-11-07: W vs. [#9HW+] Antonio Silva (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (1-2-0)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#33HW+] Mirko Filipovic (27-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 3
2011-05-28: L vs. [#4HW+] Frank Mir (16-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2010-08-07: L vs. [#1HW+/#5DD] Junior dos Santos (14-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fabricio Werdum 231, Roy Nelson 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#5] Josh Koscheck (16-5-0) vs. [#25] Mike Pierce (13-4-0)
Josh Koscheck is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Josh Koscheck (2-1-0)
2011-09-24: W vs. [#27WW] Matt Hughes (45-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2010-12-11: L vs. [#1WW/#2DD] Georges St Pierre (22-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2010-05-08: W vs. [#22WW] Paul Daley (29-11-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Mike Pierce (2-1-0)
2011-11-12: W vs. [#97WW] Paul Bradley (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2011-08-06: L vs. [#7WW] Johny Hendricks (12-1-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-02-05: W vs. [#81MW] Kenny Robertson (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Koscheck 133, Mike Pierce 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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FightMatrix Program: UFC on FOX 2 (01-28-2012)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Rashad Evans (21-1-1) vs. [#12] Phil Davis (9-0-0)
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (3-0-0)
2011-08-06: W vs. [#18LHW] Tito Ortiz (17-10-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2010-05-29: W vs. [#5LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-01-02: W vs. [#17LHW] Thiago Silva (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (3-0-0)
2011-03-26: W vs. [#11LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-11-20: W vs. [#26MW] Tim Boetsch (14-4-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:55 of round 2
2010-08-07: W vs. [#69MW] Rodney Wallace (11-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rashad Evans 175, Phil Davis 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#2] Chael Sonnen (26-11-1) vs. [#9] Michael Bisping (22-3-0)
Chael Sonnen is the All-Time #6 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (2-1-0)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#13MW] Brian Stann (11-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2
2010-08-07: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (31-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 3:10 of round 5
2010-02-06: W vs. [#8MW] Nate Marquardt (31-10-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (3-0-0)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#63MW] Jason Miller (24-8-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3
2011-02-27: W vs. [#54MW] Jorge Rivera (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2010-10-16: W vs. [#64MW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chael Sonnen 112, Michael Bisping 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#10] Demian Maia (15-3-0) vs. [#21] Chris Weidman (7-0-0)
Demian Maia is the All-Time #13 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Demian Maia (2-1-0)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#25MW] Jorge Santiago (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-06-11: L vs. [#4MW] Mark Munoz (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2010-12-04: W vs. [#33MW] Kendall Grove (14-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (3-0-0)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#92MW] Tom Lawlor (7-4-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:07 of round 1
2011-06-11: W vs. [#114MW] Jesse Bongfeldt (21-8-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:54 of round 1
2011-03-03: W vs. [#39MW] Alessio Sakara (15-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demian Maia 112, Chris Weidman 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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FightMatrix Q&A with #11 Lightweight Brian Cobb
You may have seen this week’s post regarding Brian Cobb and his fight on Friday. If you haven’t, click here. Furthermore, if you’ve been here a while, you’ve likely noticed his name being ranked toward the top of the Lightweight division — something you won’t see on other ranking sites.
Friday will do a whole bunch to determine whether or not that ranking is complete legit or even in the ballpark. We got a hold of Brian to ask him a few questions regarding FightMatrix and his fight on Friday.
FM: There are a lot of MMA ranking sites out there, though the FightMatrix system has been giving you the most praise over the past year or so, consistently ranking you right outside the Top 10. Do you follow your rank on our site and do you consider this an accurate ranking for yourself in the Lightweight division?
Cobb: I definitely follow the FightMatrix rankings. It is the only ranking website that I have bookmarked on my computer. I firmly believe rankings don’t help you win fights, that is why they have the fighters actually fight, but it is really nice to get so much respect from FightMatrix for my past few wins. I think their rankings are accurate because I feel like I can hang with anyone in the world for three to five rounds. It seems that people who do not consider me worthy of being in the top 10 do not acknowledge the people I have fought or believe it is unjustified because I am not currently in the UFC
FightMatrix Program: MFC 32 (01-27-2012)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#66] Dwayne Lewis (13-7-0) vs. [*] Wilson Gouveia (12-8-0)
Last 3 Fights: Dwayne Lewis (2-1-0)
2011-02-25: L vs. [#19LHW] Ryan Jimmo (16-1-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:13 of round 3
2010-11-12: W vs. [#91LHW] Razak Al Hassan (11-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2010-09-10: W vs. [#149LHW] Mike Nickels (9-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Wilson Gouveia (0-3-0)
2010-05-07: L vs. [#19LHW] Ryan Jimmo (16-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2009-12-12: L vs. [#16MW] Alan Belcher (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:03 of round 1
2009-02-21: L vs. [#8MW] Nate Marquardt (31-10-2) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:10 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dwayne Lewis 336, Wilson Gouveia 630
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#11] Brian Cobb (19-6-0) vs. [#36] Antonio McKee (26-4-2)
Last 3 Fights: Brian Cobb (3-0-0)
2011-06-10: W vs. [#101WW] Drew Fickett (41-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1
2011-05-20: W vs. [#101LW] Rad Martinez (11-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:41 of round 2
2010-10-30: W vs. [#31FW] Kazunori Yokota (14-5-3) via SD (28-28, 29-30, 28-28)
Last 3 Fights: Antonio McKee (2-1-0)
2011-08-26: W vs. [#323LW] Jai Bradney (12-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:54 of round 1
2011-01-01: L vs. [#20LW] Jacob Volkmann (14-2-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2010-09-10: W vs. [#177LW] Luciano Azevedo (16-9-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:11 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Cobb 231, Antonio McKee 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#387] Ryan McGillivray (11-5-1) vs. [#562] Diego Bautista (7-0-0)
Last 3 Fights: Ryan McGillivray (2-1-0)
2011-06-04: L vs. [#246WW] Shamar Bailey (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-09-10: W vs. [#602WW] Markhaile Wedderburn (10-10-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:42 of round 2
2010-07-09: W vs. [#181WW] Andrew Buckland (14-8-1) via Submission (Kimura) in 2:04 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Diego Bautista (3-0-0)
2011-01-02: W vs. [#316WW] Preston Scharf (14-13-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-09-24: W vs. [NA] Tony Dalton (2-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:23 of round 1
2010-07-24: W vs. [NA] John Mowry (2-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:35 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan McGillivray 237, Diego Bautista 390
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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A quick word from a sponsor regarding fighter safety!
If you train, be sure to pick up some mma head gear. Repeated blows to the head can cause repetitive head injury syndrome. Stay safe, protect your head – you’ll need it! Some headgear also provides a face shield or full face protection to protect your nose, from bruises, cuts and breaks if that’s a concern.
New Feature: ‘Outside of UFC’ filter
Introducing a minor new feature on our ranking pages: You can now use the ‘Last Fought In’ filter to quickly view all the ranked fighters in a weight class whose last fight was not in the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
For example, here are all the ranked welterweights who last fought outside of the UFC:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/welterweight/?OrgFilter=-1
Thanks to our reader GLF for the suggestion!
No Pressure Brian Cobb. On Friday, he puts his ranking up to the test.
Brian Cobb (19-6-0) , #11 ranked Lightweight, has long been the topic of debate as being perhaps the most controversial ranking in the history of the FightMatrix ranking system — right next to Ray Mercer.
Although on a five fight win streak, he lost his two fights prior to that to fighters who have since fallen off the relevancy radar. Cobb also had the benefit of facing off against fighters who were momentarily peaking, like Drew Fickett, and Kazunori Yokota. Still, he has earned his FightMatrix ranking the traditional way, by earning points. His points though, will be on the line Friday against [#36 LW] Antonio McKee (26-4-2) in a five round MFC Lightweight title bout.
McKee is no slouch and a dominant win over McKee in his home organization would speak volumes. McKee fought nearly even with Jacob Volkmann just over a year ago and prior to that, hadn’t lost since 2003, with that loss being in a Welterweight fight.
We’ll be posting a “FightMatrix Program” for this card later in the week. Maybe we can also lure in a comment from Brian prior to the match-up.
“Keep an Eye Out For…” UPDATE: Daniel Pineda
On 9/19/11, I wrote this “Keep an Eye Out For…” article:
“[#35FW] Daniel Pineda (14 – 7 – 0) has rattled off 4 stoppage wins, after losing via kneebar to [*] Chas Skelly (7 – 0 – 0) at Bellator 19 in May 2010. These wins include
- 1st round rear naked choke on lightweight [*] Reynaldo Trujillo (8 – 7 – 0) in July 2010
- 1st round heel hook on lightweight prospect [#332LW] Levi Forrest (6 – 1 – 0) in January 2011
- KO in under 1:00 of the 1st round over lightweight [*] Ray Blodgett (5 – 1 – 0) in April 2011
- 3rd round rear naked choke on WEC veteran [#141FW] Frank Gomez (10 – 4 – 0) in July 2011.
Pineda has won every one of his victories via stoppage, and he has only gone to a decision once in his career. These aren’t 0-1 fighters he is beating, they are legit prospects and tough veterans. At 26 years old, the Houston, Texas native has a lot of time to hone his skills and make it to the big show.”
Pineda is now ranked [#40FW] and sports a (15 – 7 – 0) record with a 5th stoppage win in a row in December 2011 over featherweight [*] Gilbert Jiminez (5 – 4 – 1). He will be making his UFC debut this friday at UFC on FX 1 against undefeated St. Paul, Minnesota fighter [#227FW] Pat Schilling (5 – 0 – 0). Pineda has the edge in experience, but Schilling is a finisher. In fact, 4 of Schilling’s 5 wins come by way of submission, while Pineda has lost 6 times by submission. With both of these guys being relatively unknown to the general UFC audience at this point, this could be either fighter’s coming out party.
Twitter – @Jonathan_Grand
FightMatrix Program: UFC on FX (01-20-2011)
Lightweight (156)
[#12] Jim Miller (20-3-0, 155.0lb) vs. [#24] Melvin Guillard (27-10-2, 156.0lb)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #24 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#3LW] Ben Henderson (15-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)
2011-03-19: W vs. [#53LW] Kamal Shalorus (7-1-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 3
2010-12-11: W vs. [#100LW] Charles Oliveira (14-2-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:59 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Melvin Guillard (2-1-0)
2011-10-08: L vs. [#11LW] Joe Lauzon (21-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 1
2011-07-02: W vs. [#54LW] Shane Roller (10-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 1
2011-01-22: W vs. [#37LW] Evan Dunham (12-2-0) via TKO (Knees) in 2:58 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 159, Melvin Guillard 104
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#35] Josh Neer (32-10-1, 171.0lb) vs. [#53] Duane Ludwig (21-11-0, 170.5lb)
Last 3 Fights: Josh Neer (3-0-0)
2011-10-01: W vs. [#114WW] Keith Wisniewski (28-13-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2011-08-20: W vs. [#736WW] Blas Avena (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:54 of round 1
2011-06-25: W vs. [#73WW] Jesse Juarez (17-7-0) via TKO (Injury) in 5:00 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Duane Ludwig (2-1-0)
2011-08-14: W vs. [#60WW] Amir Sadollah (5-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-11-13: W vs. [#211WW] Nick Osipczak (5-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2010-03-21: L vs. [#27FW] Darren Elkins (13-2-0) via TKO (Ankle Injury) in 0:44 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Neer 111, Duane Ludwig 159
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#49] Jared Papazian (14-6-0, 135.5lb) vs. [#65] Mike Easton (10-1-0, 135.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Jared Papazian (3-0-0)
2011-09-15: W vs. [#296BW] Marvin Garcia (7-1-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-06-24: W vs. [#90BW] Abel Cullum (19-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-03-27: W vs. [#129BW] Kana Hyatt (9-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Mike Easton (3-0-0)
2011-10-01: W vs. [#252BW] Byron Bloodworth (6-2-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:52 of round 2
2009-10-03: W vs. [#48FW] Chase Beebe (18-8-1) via SD (49-46, 46-49, 48-47)
2009-04-25: W vs. [#415BW] Josh Ferguson (8-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:06 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jared Papazian 127, Mike Easton 111
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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