UFC on Fox 8 / Odds vs. Ratings (05-18-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Martins vs. Larsen | Martins (-269 / Moderate) | Martins (1.95x / Large) | PASS | #4 |
| da Silva vs. Cariaso | da Silva (-143 / Small) | da Silva (1.02x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Lineker vs. Gashimov | Lineker (-146 / Small) | Lineker (4.54x / Massive) | Lineker | #1, #3, #4 |
| Maldonado vs. Hollett | Maldonado (-250 / Moderate) | Hollett (1.54x / Moderate) | Hollett | #4 |
| Dias vs. Lentz | Lentz (-144 / Small) | Lentz (1.49x / Moderate) | PASS | #4 |
| Alcantara vs. Santos | Alcantara (-508 / Very Large) | Alcantara (2.39x / Large) | Santos | |
| Thiago vs. Richard dos Prazeres | Thiago (-164 / Small) | Thiago (1.50x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| Tibau vs. Cholish | Tibau (-215 / Moderate) | Tibau (2.59x / Large) | Tibau | #4 |
| Trinaldo vs. Rio | Trinaldo (-341 / Large) | Trinaldo (1.87x / Large) | PASS | #4 |
| Zeferino vs. Natal | Natal (-330 / Large) | Natal (1.82x / Moderate) | Zeferino | |
| dos Anjos vs. Dunham | dos Anjos (-191 / Moderate) | dos Anjos (1.43x / Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Souza vs. Camozzi | Souza (-568 / Very Large) | Souza (2.12x / Large) | PASS | #4 |
| Belfort vs. Rockhold | Rockhold (-126 / Very Small) | Belfort (1.13x / Very Small) | PASS | #3, #4 |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Lineker, Tibau
Underdogs to consider:
- Zeferino over Natal- A bit of a speculative play here. The odds are just a tad too wide for Natal.
- Santos over Alcantara – See above. We have Alcantara as something like a -450 favorite. This one is tight and worth a tiny bet at most.
- Hollett over Maldonado – Though Maldonado is at home and a moderate favorite, his three straight losses and the rating system disagree pretty strongly.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Thursday, September 10th 2026: Rizin FF - Super Rizin 5 | |||
 [#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina |  [#17 W105] Rena Kubota | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 4/12/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#9 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 12/31/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Seika Izawa Last 5: W L W W L | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
 [#7 W125] Liz Carmouche |  [#13 W125] Viviane Araujo | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 8/15/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#15 W125] Jena Bishop Last 5: W L W W W | Last Fight Date: 4/11/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#60 W125] Shanna Young Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
| [#6 FW] A.J. McKee |  [#19 FW] Salamat Isbulaev | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#28 FW] Adam Borics Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 2/07/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#23 FW] Jesus Pinedo Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#1 LW] | Justin Gaethje | [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | |
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | [#1 LHW] | Alex Pereira | |
| [NR] |  Conor McGregor | [#8 HW] | Josh Hokit | |
| [#1 HW] |  Ciryl Gane | [#2 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev | |
| [#4 LW] |  Arman Tsarukyan | [#3 LW] | Charles Oliveira |
Fight Matrix Program: UFC on Fox 8 (05-18-2013)
Middleweight (185)
[#2] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0, -100) vs. [#4] Luke Rockhold (10-1-0, -124)
Luke Rockhold is the All-Time #22 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2013-01-19: W vs. [#7MW] Michael Bisping (24-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#5DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#14LHW] Anthony Johnson (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Luke Rockhold (3-0-0)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#19MW] Tim Kennedy (15-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#54MW] Keith Jardine (17-12-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Luke Rockhold 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#9] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0, -547) vs. [#30] Chris Camozzi (19-5-0, +402)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#37MW] Ed Herman (20-9-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:10 of round 1
2012-08-18: W vs. [#25MW] Derek Brunson (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#145MW] Bristol Marunde (12-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:43 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Chris Camozzi (3-0-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#33MW] Nick Ring (13-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#134MW] Luiz Cane (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-22: W vs. [#342WW] Nick Catone (9-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:51 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 126, Chris Camozzi 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#12] Rafael dos Anjos (18-6-0, -191) vs. [#21] Evan Dunham (14-3-0, +160)
Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#27LW] Mark Bocek (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#57LW] Anthony Njokuani (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#169LW] Kamal Shalorus (7-3-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:40 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Evan Dunham (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#22LW] Gleison Tibau (26-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#8LW] T.J. Grant (20-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#10FW] Nik Lentz (23-5-2) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 182, Evan Dunham 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Evan Dunham leads 2-0
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Upcoming Events Enhancement
Our ‘Upcoming Events’ section has been enhanced to allow browsing upcoming events by promotion.
For example, here are all the UFC Upcoming Events.
A list of all MMA promotions with upcoming events: Upcoming MMA Events – By Promotion
Why gamble on wrestling or boxing matches online?
Today when people go and see wrestling matches, they find time to make side bets on their favorite wrestlers. This may look like gambling but people just do it for fun. There are also pubs and places of entertainment that offer betting offices for those who want to watch the final or the championship while drinking with friends. This set up is very popular among yuppies or the young professionals who find relaxation during a popular boxing match.
Women’s MMA Rankings
To acknowledge the tremendous growth of women’s mixed martial arts competition and to make room for future expansions, our women’s rankings now have their own pages for each weight division.
Please visit the ranking pages at their new homes:
Combat Age: Our Latest Creation
Now visible in the fighter ranking “hover overs”, is our initial iteration of a statistic we call combat age.
For years, fans have subjectively argued about which fighters were battle-worn and have attempted to link this to the foreshadowing of the end of a fighter’s prime. With combat age, we are looking to add our objective touch to this.
At it’s most basic level, one can equate “combat age” to “dog years” in that it will mirror the basic human lifecycle. With this new computation, we expect fighters to hit their respective “peak” in the years that your typical adult “peaks” in life, somewhere between 25 and 40. We will expect most fighters to start their descent at some point in their 40s and be far removed from their peak by 60. Please keep in mind, that there will be anomalies, just like in life. These anomalies (for the most part) will be welcome. Anomalies we cannot prevent, are those that basic fight data can’t convey, such as serious career-altering injuries, non-MMA fight careers or a predisposition to not get knocked out (incredibly hard heads).
In this computation, we will be considering:
- Biological age.
- Total fights.
- Total losses.
- Stoppage losses.
- Cumulative fight time.
The included factors, as well as the weighting of said factors are subject to and may very likely change.
For a quick demo of combat age.
| Age | Combat Age | Diff | |
| Forrest Griffin | 33 | 44 | +11 |
| Wanderlei Silva | 36 | 56 | +20 |
| Georges St. Pierre | 31 | 38 | +7 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 34 | 50 | +16 |
| Anderson Silva | 38 | 44 | +6 |
Martial arts betting tips
Be it boxing or Muai Thai, fighting is loved around the world as a way for compete as well as a way for people to let out their aggression in a controlled environment. There have been professional fighters for thousands of years with evidence in every civilisation such as the Roman gladiators. In our modern times there are now televised fights that millions of people watch all around the world. Another aspect of competitive fighting is people placing bets on the fights, this has not changed either apart from how easy it is to place a bet from home while watching the fight. With the Internet you can now find reviews of games and find the best online casino at GamingClub.com, online betting sites are now rated as well and have become more and more popular because of all the information they provide as well as up to date odds on bets.
A type of competitive fighting that has grown more and more mainstream in the same way that wrestling did in the 90’s is MMA or mixed martial arts. This allows people from many different fighting styles such as karate, judo, jiu-jitsu, boxing, kickboxing, wrestling and other techniques to fight against each other. This is a great way to see how many of these ancient martial arts hold up to real fighting as most people who practice them never really have to use them in real life. It is also great for people who just enjoy fighting as a sport as each fight is different from the last. This can make placing a bet on who will come out on top much harder however as there are many more variables to think about. But if you can’t quite pick then you could always put money on how you think the fight will end, for example with a knock out. Either way the fights will always be entertaining to watch and enjoy.
UFC 159 / Odds vs. Ratings (04-27-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Siler vs. Holobaugh | Siler (-129 / Very Small) | Siler (1.57x / Moderate) | PASS | #1 |
| Head vs. Catone | Head (-157 / Small) | Head (4.98x / Massive) | Head | |
| Garcia vs. McKenzie | Garcia (-175 / Small) | Garcia (1.03x / Pick ‘Em) | McKenzie | |
| Khabilov vs. Medeiros | Khabilov (-308 / Large) | Khabilov (2.24x / Large) | PASS | |
| McMann vs. Gaff | McMann (-702 / Very Large) | McMann (1.78x / Moderate) | PASS | #1, #3 |
| St. Preux vs. Villante | St. Preux (-194 / Moderate) | St. Preux (1.25x / Very Small) | Villante | |
| Caraway vs. Bedford | Bedford (-148 / Small) | Caraway (1.12x / Very Small) | PASS | #2 |
| Miller vs. Healy | Miller (-323 / Large) | Miller (1.05x / Pick ‘Em) | Healy | |
| Davis vs. Magalhaes | Davis (-329 / Large) | Davis (1.87x / Large) | PASS | |
| Nelson vs. Kongo | Nelson (-239 / Moderate) | Nelson (1.32x / Small) | Kongo | |
| Belcher vs. Bisping | Bisping (-171 / Small) | Bisping (1.16x / Very Small) | Belcher | |
| Jones vs. Sonnen | Jones (-909 / Very Large) | Jones (3.68x / Massive) | Jones | #1 |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Head, Jones
Underdogs to consider:
- Villante over St. Preux – Villante has been successful since his drop to 205. A small bet may be warranted..
- McKenzie over Garcia – The mere fact that Garcia is involved makes me leery to even make note of this bout. Tread carefully.
- Belcher over Bisping – The fringe contenders at Middleweight are constantly bouncing around due to the congestion and matchmaking. Still, Belcher seems to be an OK bet.
- Healy over Miller – The system continues its somewhat odd Lightweight love affair with Healy, after breaking up with Brian Cobb. Will this love stand the test?
- Kongo over Nelson – Due to the stylistic difference which I do not consider in these posts, another potential bet that is clouded with subjective doubt.
Fightmatrix Program: UFC 159 (04-27-2013)
Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#5DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0, -866) vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1, +599)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #3 ranked Light Heavyweight and #13 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-04-21: W vs. [#6LHW] Rashad Evans (22-3-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#2LHW] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (2-1-0)
2012-07-07: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (33-4-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#11MW] Michael Bisping (23-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 217, Chael Sonnen 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#11] Michael Bisping (23-5-0, -167) vs. [#17] Alan Belcher (18-7-0, +141)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (1-2-0)
2013-01-19: L vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Alan Belcher (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#6MW] Yushin Okami (29-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#27MW] Rousimar Palhares (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:18 of round 1
2011-09-17: W vs. [*] Jason MacDonald (25-16-0) via Submission (Punches) in 3:48 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Bisping 98, Alan Belcher 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Bisping leads 3-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Roy Nelson (18-7-0, -233) vs. [#16] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2, +190)
Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2012-05-26: W vs. [#63HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Cheick Kongo (2-1-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#27HW+] Shawn Jordan (14-4-0) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#8HW+] Mark Hunt (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-10-29: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 133, Cheick Kongo 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Gambling Analysis: UFC 159
It has been about 7 months since we made a bet in the “Gambling Analysis” series, so I thought it was a good time to pull it out of retirement. Although similar to the “Ratings vs. Odds” series, in this post we use the ratings more as a supporting factor rather than a guiding factor.
I am usually against betting on huge favorites, but I don’t think you can go wrong on Jones @ -857 (the current meta-average). He projects at somewhere around -1100 and I can see Sonnen plodding around the octagon, until he gets stopped late in the 2nd with a barrage of strikes. There is a chance that the return to 205 makes Sonnen a better fighter, but I just don’t see him being able to take Jones out.
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For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:
- UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
- UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
- Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
- No Outcome Predicted
- UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
- Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
- Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
- StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
- No Contest
- UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
- Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
- UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
- UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
- No Outcome Predicted
- Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Split Decision Loss
- UFC 159 – Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen: Jones @ -857
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2) | Actual:
If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $255.95. If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t count them.
Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.