This monthly gambling snippet is my 4th and I am batting 100% so far (4 for 4) — even with the type of result, I am practically dead on! Now that I’ve adequately jinxed myself, let’s flip the script and take a look at this weekend’s Strikeforce card. Maybe the switch from UFC will reverse the aforementioned jinx and put me back into rhythm.
The value on this card in my mind, is Chad Griggs. The odds vary on this fight, but they sit around even, and there is the odd site that has Valentijn Overeem as the favorite. I won’t pretend to be an expert on either guy, but when you have a guy who has lost 25 times, versus a younger fighter who is rated higher by Fight Matrix and has a 10-1 record, you take the latter. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Griggs pounding on a downed Overeem for the stoppage.
I’m placing the same type of theory on betting for Justin Wilcox. He’s also a small underdog (about +130) against Gesias Cavalcante. Apparently, the late money is coming in on Wilcox, so maybe others are sharing my ever decreasing faith in the Japanese crossover fighters. Even when they do win a decision, they don’t win the fight, so I’ll take Wilcox by decision.
So there you have it. Two underdog picks in which I’m applying theory and instinct over knowledge. A little different than the last couple posts, but hopefully it comes through. If I go 6 for 6, I may need to make a career out of this.